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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia for
Wednesday, March 2, 2022
The warm sunny weather continues, and the snowpack remains dangerous. There is a slab present on a widespread weak layer of facets, and observers continue to experience frequent collapsing. The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE and human triggered avalanches are likely on slopes facing NW-N-E where this weak layer exists.
Human triggered avalanches are possible on all other slopes and the danger is MODERATE. As the day heats up be alert to signs of wet snow instability on sun exposed slopes.
Low
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High
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Weather and Snow
Skies remain clear this morning and highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Warm temps will continue into Friday before precipitation and moisture increases ahead of a series of low pressure troughs. This will give us a chance for some snow by the weeekend.
NWS Weather Forecast.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
Snowpack
On Thursday Eric found excellent powder snow and sensitive, dangerous avalanche conditions. Heading up North Creek, he was able to remotely trigger this avalanche (video below) as he passed underneath the slope. This is an obvious red flag sign of instability and areas that have deeper snow, will produce deeper and more dangerous avalanches. Another observer was in North Creek on Saturday and experienced widespread collapsing and cracking on any slope facing NW, N, & NE. Read their excellent observation HERE.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer of faceted snow under the new snow from this week's snowfall (example photo below, the facets are the sugary looking snow under the new snow) can fracture and produce soft slab avalanches today. This layer exists mostly on northerly facing slopes but can be found on east facing slopes as well. Be aware that this weak layer exists at all elevations. Another observer in the Abajos yesterday got widespread collapsing on this layer on northerly facing slopes around 9000 feet on EVERY spot with a any amount of drifting. These are obvious signs of instability and should have our attention.
I wouldn't trust the snowpack and would be very conservative in my decision making on what slopes to cross and which ones to ride.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Temperatures will be even warmer than yesterday with 10,000 ft highs in the low 40's. Valley bottoms dipped to the upper 20's last night. Ridgeline temperatures stayed above freezing, bottoming out around 33 degrees. Solar aspects will heat up fast today. Local observers have not seen evidence of wet activity so far, but it is always a possibility when the weather is this warm. Keep this in mind today when traveling on sunny aspects and if the snow feels wet, or doesn't support your weight, it's time to move to another slope. Roller balls and pinwheels are a great indicator of wet activity.
General Announcements
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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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