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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Friday, March 18, 2022
The avalanche danger is MODERATE but the possibility of triggering a deadly avalanche 2'-3' deep on a buried persistent weak layer remains very real. This weak layer is present on all slopes facing W-N-E. These avalanches can be triggered at all elevations but areas of heightened concern are on steep, northerly facing slopes right around treeline. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully and identify features of concern.
A MODERATE danger also exists for human triggered avalanches involving recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Gusty, erratic winds yesterday deposited fresh drifts on all aspects. They'll be less sensitive today but be on the lookout for unstable wind slabs on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls, sub-ridges, and rocky outcrops. Fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth rounded appearance and they may sound hollow underneath.
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Weather and Snow
After a blustery day with 3" of new snow yesterday, conditions are mostly calm this morning. Today we should see some scattered high to mid level clouds as a dry, shortwave trough moves through the region. Winds will be light and westerly and high temps will be in the low 30's. Saturday will be mostly sunny and warm with mountain temps rising up into the low 40's. On Sunday, a week system will bring a chance for a little snow. Long range models aren't showing much out there, and I'm afraid our hopes for a Miracle March are dwindling.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard SNOTEL (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson SNOTEL (8858')
Snowpack
I underestimated what yesterday's north winds and 3" of new snow could do. Exposed slopes took a beating and blowing snow created sensitive fresh drifts up to a foot deep on leeward slopes. Cross loading was also a factor and drifts could be found on all aspects on the leeward sides of terrain features such as sub-ridges or rock outcrops. These recent drifts will be less sensitive today but if triggered they could really boss you around. Out of the wind, the new snow provided a nice refresh in sheltered areas. Temps remained cool, but the high sun affected the new snow by late in the day, and most exposed slopes will be crusted over this morning.
The buried persistent weak layer of faceted snow that formed during the Jan-Feb high pressure remains a concern, and it is still capable of producing dangerous, human triggered avalanches over two feet deep on all slopes facing the north side of the compass. Here is a video of what I found in the La Sals yesterday:
Recent Avalanches
I'm sorry to report an avalanche fatality in the neighboring San Juan Mountains of Colorado. A lone snowboarder was caught and buried near Lizard Head Pass on a steep, rocky, NW facing slope. We share a similar snowpack, and this is a painful reality check of what it means to have a reactive buried persistent weak layer. Our hearts go out to all those affected by the tragedy. Here is the preliminary report.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer of loose, sugary faceted snow exists on W-N-E aspects beneath a slab that is 2' -3' thick. This problem is most pronounced on slopes facing NW-N-NE-E near treeline and below and the weak layer is easy to locate with your shovel. The weakest snow can be found on northerly aspects right around treeline and below. Above treeline the weak layer distribution is much more variable and it is hard to track. The bottom line is that attempting to outsmart this avalanche problem is a dangerous proposition. Likely trigger points include areas of shallow snow, slope margins, rocky outcroppings, and steep convex roll overs. If you are of the mindset to begin creeping into avalanche terrain keep in mind that signs of instability will no longer be obvious but that is not necessarily an indication of stability.
This graphic shows the correlation between avalanche accidents and the danger rating. Regardless of whether it is a rising or falling danger, most accidents occur during the transition between Considerable and Moderate danger.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Moderate to strong northerly winds yesterday formed sensitive wind drifts up to a foot deep. Although S and W facing slopes were the primary deposition zones, cross loading allowed drifts to form on northerly facing slopes as well. Look for fresh drifts on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as sub ridges, gully walls, and rock outcrops. Wind slabs will be more stubborn to release today, and they are mostly shallow, but they have added complexity to the snowpack and if triggered they could knock you off your feet, or even worse, lead to the release of a slab on the buried persistent weak layer. Fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth rounded appearance and they may sound hollow underneath. Scalloped or rippled surfaces are also signs of wind loading. Avoid steep slopes where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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