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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Thursday, March 10, 2022
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on slopes facing NW-N-NE-E at and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches are likely failing on a buried persistent weak layer 2-3 feet below the surface. This weak layer can also be found on slopes facing W, but sun and warm temperature last week have made avalanches on this weak layer less likely. A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on West facing slopes.
You will find a MODERATE danger for triggering an avalanche in wind drifted snow on all aspects above treeline.
South facing terrain at and below treeline offers a LOW danger.
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Weather and Snow
The mountains picked up a couple inches of snow at lower elevations so maybe 4" or so up high. SW winds yesterday blew in the 20-25 mph range with gusts to 40. They backed off overnight and shifted to the NW. We'll see clouds with a slight chance for snow this morning followed by partial clearing as the day wears on. High temps at 10,000' will be in the upper teens with blustery northerly winds adding to the chill. Clear skies are on tap starting tomorrow through the weekend with gradually warming temperatures.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard SNOTEL (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson SNOTEL (8858')
Snowpack
Snow over the past week has been enough to create dangerous conditions and human triggered avalanches, 1'-2' remain likely. The problem is a buried persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow that formed during the extended period of high pressure in Jan-Feb. Starting last week, this weak layer has been getting buried and a slab 1'-2' deep exists on top. Recent wind drifting has added more stress to this weak layer and all that is needed is a trigger such as the weight of a skier or snowmobile. This problem exists primarily on slopes facing W-N-NE-E with possible outlying problems on upper elevevation slopes facing SE.
Recent Avalanches
No recent avalanches have been reported from the Abajo Mountains.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow sits beneath a slab 1'-2' thick. New and wind drifted snow now sits on top of this slab adding more stress to the buried weak layer. Human triggered avalanches failing on this weak layer are likely, primarily on steep slopes facing NW-N-NE-E but W facing slopes are also suspect.
This video was shot in the La Sals on Tuesday, March 8th. The Abajos don't have as much snow on top, but they do have the weak, faceted layer underneath. Conditions are similar in both ranges and this video is a good example of what you can expect to see in the Abajos.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Shifting winds over the past few days have blown and drtifted snow on to all aspects at upper elevations. SW winds yesterday created fresh drifts on northerly facing slopes. In these areas, newly drifted snow has added more weight and stress to the buried persisrtent weak layer increasing the likelihood for a deeper, more dangerous avalanche. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Avoid steep wind drifted slopes, especially those facing the north side of the compass.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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