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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Thursday, February 24, 2022
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE and human triggered avalanches are likely on steep slopes at mid and upper elevations that face the north half of the compass. New and wind drifted snow is piling up on a variety of old and weak snow surfaces and a variety of avalanche problems exist. Backcountry travelers need to have excellent route finding and snow stability analysis skills. The danger is generally MODERATE on steep slopes facing the south side of the compass.
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Weather and Snow
16" of snow has fallen over the past couple of days accompanied at times by strong southerly winds. Today we'll see decreasing clouds and light to moderate NW winds as the storm exits the area. High temps will be in the low teens with wind chill values well below zero. A dry and sunny pattern returns to the area but temps will remain cold for the next several days.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
Matt Cozart was out yesterday and reported deep and drifted snow with very loose, weak snow underneath.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Deep, unstable wind drifts have formed on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features, near treeline and above, primarily on slopes facing NW-N-E-SE. Triggered wind slabs will produce avalanches up to 3' deep or possibly greater and all steep, wind drifted slopes should be avoided.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
New and wind drifted snow has begun to pile up on a variety of old snow surfaces and faceted, weak layer combinations. The weakest snow can be found on sheltered, northerly aspects where the degree of near surface faceting was greatest. Branching out from there, a variety of crust/facet combinations can be found. The uneven and variable type of weakness makes things tricky, and as snow piles up it should be assumed that human triggered avalanches failing on a buried weak layer are likely.
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches within the new snow are possible on steep slopes on all aspects. These will come in the form of either loose snow or sensitive soft slabs. South facing slopes have less snow on them because of prevailing winds over the last several days, but any steep slope with more than about 8" of snow should be considered suspect.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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