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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Monday, February 21, 2022
Snow and changing avalanche conditions on the horizon!
An isolated, or MODERATE danger exists for triggering a small avalanche involving last week's storm snow, and the loose, weak, sugary faceted snow that lies underneath. Taking the form of shallow soft slabs, or loose snow sluffs, these should be generally small and inconsequential at this time. With more snow and wind in the forecast anticipate a rise in danger over the next several days.
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Weather and Snow
Southerly winds were on the increase yesterday and by evening clouds had begun to move in ahead of a multi-day storm cycle set to impact the region. Today will be warm, cloudy, and windy as the first wave approaches. The primary impacts will affect areas to the north and then east of us but we should see a few inches of snow tonight and into early Tuesday. 2"-4" are possible. The next trough arrives late Tuesday and extends through Wednesday and we should see another 3"-5".
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
During this long period of high pressure, the snowpack has become loose, weak, and faceted. In some areas, this weak snow has formed near the surface, while in others it makes up the entire snowpack. With the addition of recent and wind drifted snow, these weak facets are now buried and are acting as persistent weak layer. For now, the likelihood and consequences of triggering an avalanche on his weak layer are small, but with more snow and wind in the forecast, expect the danger to increase on steep, northerly facing slopes over the next several days.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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