Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Saturday, December 8, 2018
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep, upper elevation terrain that face NW-N-E. In these areas, old snow from October has deteriorated into layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow that is providing an unstable base for last weekend's snow load. In most other areas, the new snow fell on bare ground and the avalanche danger is LOW. Low snow conditions are in effect and backcountry travelers need to exercise caution in avoiding buried obstacles such as rocks and deadfall.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Skies are mostly clear, WNW winds are light, and 9000' temps are in the low 20's. Today look for mostly sunny skies, light to moderate NW winds and high temps in the low to mid 20's. A ridge of high pressure is building over the region and we will see dry conditions through Tuesday. Our next chance for snow looks to be on Wednesday.
I took a trip up to North Creek Pass yesterday and was happy to see the snow. Last weekend's storm cycle brought 12"-16" to the high country. Things are still thin for recreation off of the road. The new snow fell on bare ground on all but upper elevation, northerly aspects where about 18" of snow from October remained.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Abajo Peak (11,000')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Unfortunately, those slopes that have the most snow, are also the ones that are the most suspect for avalanche problems. Snow that has sat around since October has deteriorated into a weak base of loose, sugary, faceted snow. You can find this weak snow on mid and upper elevation slopes that face NW-N-W. The photo below illustrates the most recent snow, separated from the old by a melt freeze crust. Persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow exist above, and below the crust. This is an unstable base, and human triggered avalanches, breaking down into these weak layers are possible on steep slopes wherever old snow has been sitting around since October.
Additional Information