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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, December 24, 2023
Conditions remain quite thin in the Abajos and avalanches are generally unlikely. There may be some isolated areas on mid and upper elevation, shady, northerly facing slopes where one could trigger an avalanche. In these areas, recent and wind drifted snow is overlying a weak, sugary base. These areas are difficult to access due to low snow cover, but even a small avalanche could result in a rough bumpy ride.
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Weather and Snow
7" of snow fell in lower North Creek (Buckboard SNOTEL) on Saturday, Dec 23. This incremental load will begin to stress a weak, underlying snowpack although I don't believe we are quite there yet. I traveled up and over North Creek Pass on Friday. and found low snow conditons and bare ground on solar aspects. For more details read my observation. Overall coverage on shady slopes ranges from 1'-2'. The existing snowpack is very weak and will likely prove to be problematic when significant snow finally accumulates. For now, there really isn't enough snow to venture off of roads.
NWS forecast for the Abajo Mountains.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
Horse Head slide path on December 22, 2023.
Additional Information
The snowpit below was dug on a northeast aspect just below North Creek Pass. It shows a very weak, underlying snowpack. The line through the middle is a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow, and everything below it is faceted as well. This creates an unstable base for future snowloads and we'll be keeping our eye on it.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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