Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Tuesday, December 18, 2018
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep, upper elevation terrain that face NW-N-E. In these areas, old snow from October has deteriorated into layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow that is providing an unstable base for the last snow load. There may also be a few stiff wind drifts in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. In most other areas, the avalanche danger is LOW. Low snow conditions are in effect and backcountry travelers need to exercise caution in avoiding buried obstacles such as rocks and deadfall.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
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Weather and Snow
With the current forecasted weather pattern not expected to affect the avalanche danger, I won't be reporting daily current weather conditions. Use the links below for real time information.
Snow conditions are still quite low for off-trail recreation.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Abajo Peak (11,000')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Unfortunately, those slopes that have the most snow, are also the ones that are the most suspect for avalanche problems. Snow that has sat around since October has deteriorated into a weak base of loose, sugary, faceted snow. You can find this weak snow on mid and upper elevation slopes that face NW-N-W. The photo below illustrates the most recent snow, separated from the old by a melt freeze crust. Persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow exist above, and below the crust. This is an unstable base, and human triggered avalanches, breaking down into these weak layers are possible on steep slopes wherever old snow has been sitting around since October.