Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia for
Wednesday, January 4, 2023
Special Announcements
Heavy snowfall and strong southerly winds have created dangerous avalanche conditions in the Abajo Mountains. Human triggered avalanches are likely. All avalanche terrain should be avoided. Stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30 degrees. Avoid avalanche run out zones and terrain traps such as gullies, canyon bottoms, or areas where avalanche debris can pile up.
Weather and Snow
The dump we've been waiting for has finally fallen on the Abajos with up to 2' of heavy, wet snow falling at upper elevations on Sunday. Some rain on snow occurred at lower elevations and Camp Jackson received 18" of snow at 4.0" of Snow Water Equivalent while Buckboard Flat Snotel in North Creek received 20".
NWS Forecast for the Abajo Mountains
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')

Snowpack Summary and General Conditions
DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST IN THE ABAJO MOUNTAINS!
Heavy snowfall combined with wind has overloaded a weak, underlying snowpack creating dangerous avalanche conditions. Natural and human triggered avalanches are likely. A persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow is buried in the snowpack. Dense, new and wind drifted snow has built thick, unstable slabs on top stressing this buried weak layer to it's breaking point. Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Backcountry travelers should avoid all avalanche terrain. Stay off of and out from under terrain steeper than 30 degrees. Avoid terrain traps such as gully walls, canyon bottoms, and avalanche run out zones.
The photo below illustrates the weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow that exists in the snowpack. All of the snow below the dust line is very weak and is incapable of supporting the added snow load from this most recent storm.
Additional Information
If you are getting out in the backcountry, we'd love to hear what you're seeing. Please submit observations here. For the most recent snowpack observations click here. You can also send an email to [email protected] or give me a call with anything noteworthy, especially avalanches! 801-647-8896
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.