Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia for
Tuesday, January 17, 2023
Special Announcements
Heavy snowfall and strong winds have created dangerous avalanche conditions in the Abajo Mountains. With more snow on the way, conditions will remain dangerous through the week.
Weather and Snow
NWS Forecast for the Abajo Mountains
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')

Weather
SW winds will continue today blowing 15-25 mph. Another 3-5" of snow could fall today. By Wednesday, the flow shifts to the NW, and we're starting to see signs of a transition away from the current weather pattern that has been characterized by atmospheric rivers and warm southwest flow. Skies will briefly clear Wednesday. Another chance for snow on Thursday finishes out the week.

Snowpack Summary and General Conditions
Cory Noonan toured around the old ski hill yesterday and sent in this report.
The Abajo range has picked up another 6 inches of new snow on top of a foot that fell previously. Storm totals are 18 inches in the past 48 hours. The dense, new snow has formed a cohesive slab over the lower density, old snow surface, and this process was aided by sustained southerly winds that blew and drifted snow at all elevations. SW winds will continue to blow and drift snow today. Unstable slabs of wind drifted snow up 18"deep exist on leeward slopes. Expect to find instabilities within the new snow as well. Human triggered avalanches remain likely, especially on steep, wind loaded slopes with a northerly aspect.
The November persistent weak layer is deeply buried in most areas and is becoming harder to affect. Areas of concern include places where the snowpack is thinner like along slope margins, near rocky outcrops, or along steep convexities. We are once again testing it with a new load of snow and more is on the way. For now, let's steer clear of steep, northerly facing terrain until the dust settles so to speak.
Additional Information
If you are getting out in the backcountry, we'd love to hear what you're seeing. Please submit observations here. For the most recent snowpack observations click here. You can also send an email to [email protected] or give me a call with anything noteworthy, especially avalanches! 801-647-8896
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.