Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Skyline Area Mountains Issued by Brett Kobernik for Sunday - April 1, 2018 - 6:46am
bottom line

The majority of the terrain along the Skyline has a LOW to MODERATE danger. There is still a small chance that a person could trigger an avalanche that breaks to the ground in the upper elevation terrain. North through east facing slopes that are approaching 40 degrees in steepness are the most suspect. It seems fairly unlikely that someone will trigger something but the consequences would be bad if you do.
current conditions

Warm temperatures over the last few days have made most slopes become wet and you'll find a melt-freeze crust on them this morning until they soften. Even most of the high elevation northerly slopes have been effected by the warm temperatures.

Overnight mountain temperatures remained fairly warm with lows in the low to mid 30s. West wind picked up a bit and it's been a bit blustery overnight.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

I have covered lots of terrain along the Skyline over the last few days evaluating the overall strength of the snowpack. What I've come up with is that the weak snow near the ground is certainly still there but the mid portion of the pack is quite strong now. My take is that it is fairly unlikely that a person will effect the deeply buried weak layers through the strong mid snowpack. Do I like this set up? No way! It makes me nervous but things are becoming more stable. If you are getting onto the steeper upper elevation northerly facing slopes, I would avoid shallow spots where bushes or rocks are sticking through the snowpack. These are likely spots to trigger something that breaks to the ground. The deeper areas are the most stable.
weather

We'll have another day of mild temperatures in the hills with moderate speed ridge top west wind. Highs will be in the low 40s again. West northwest wind will be in the moderate speed range. It'll feel a bit gusty along the higher ridges. The big picture is we'll see continued warm weather for the most part with a few minor weather disturbances this week. A slightly larger storm is shaping up for next weekend but it's looking less impressive than is originally did. More warm weather follows.
general announcements

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