Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Provo Area Mountains Issued by Evelyn Lees for Tuesday - April 10, 2018 - 7:12am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE today for triggering wet loose sluffs at mid and upper elevations. Natural wet loose avalanches are possible as the day heats up. Early starts and early finishes – once the snow heats, get out of the backcountry, avoiding travel on or below steep slopes and gullies. There remains an isolated chance of triggering a wet slab avalanche breaking on a deeper weak layer or near the ground - if the crusts become punchy or soft, it's time to get off steep slopes.
special announcement

The last regular early morning forecast will be Sunday, April 17th. We will then do intermittent forecast through May 29th.

The Wilderness Medicine Program at the University of Utah is surveying the knowledge of both regular and occasional backcountry users. Please provide your input through this survey. https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/AvalancheSafetySkillsSurvey
current conditions

Skies are mostly clear, and temperatures are warm – in the thirties at the mid elevations, with twenties at the upper elevations and in the canyon bottoms, where the cold air has pooled. The winds have shifted to the southwest and are light, averaging 5 to10 mph at the mid elevations, and 15 to 25 mph on the highest peaks. Many slopes will be sun crusted this morning.

Sadly, the trails heads in the Provo area mountains melted out long ago. It was a tough winter for low elevations snow.
recent activity

The pro trio that headed down to Timp yesterday provided some much needed new information. Check out their full observation HERE.

Recent activity noted:

  1. One recent deep, slab avalanche that occurred during this weekend’s rain in the Cascade Cirque on Timp on a N/NE aspect.
  2. One very small wet loose slide in one of the other UFO bowls on a E aspect
  3. One larger wet loose slide in the apron under the Grunge couloir.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 14 hours
description

Today’s sun and warm temperatures will rapidly heat the snow and both human triggered and natural wet loose sluffs will be possible. Watch for wet or slushy snow, punchy crusts, or rollar balls as signs the snow is heating. This means it's time to move to a cooler aspect or lower angle slopes. Also avoid travel below gullies and in terrain traps once the day and snow heats.

High thin clouds are forecast to move in this afternoon, which may heat the snow on the northerly facing slopes, too, especially at the mid elevations.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

Wet slabs occurred during the rain on Saturday. The issue and the weak layers near the ground in the Provo area mountains are not gone, rather they are moslty dormant - hidden beneath a strong frozen crust. Avalanching on these deeper weak layers is unlikely. However, if you are finding wet snow beneath the crusts or as the day heats and the crusts are getting punchy, avoid steep slopes. Danger for this problem would be above 9500 at upper elevations mainly on northerlies.

Mountain travel always has risks. Slide for life conditions exist on the hard, icy slopes early in the day.

Wind slabs: there may be a few wind drifts along the highest ridge lines near the summits of the peaks.
weather

Another beautiful morning, though the day will rapidly get too hot. Clear skies this morning, with high thin clouds moving in this afternoon. Temperatures will warm to near 60°F at 8,000’ and into the 40s at 10,000’. The southwesterly winds will average 5 to 15 mph at the mid elevations, and up to 25 mph at the upper elevations, increasing slightly this afternoon. A quick moving cold front may drop a trace to an inch of snow overnight, with a more significant storm system expected Thursday into Friday, with much colder temperatures and potentially heavy snowfall.
general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.