Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Provo Area Mountains Issued by Mark Staples for Tuesday - February 13, 2018 - 6:46am
bottom line

The danger today is LOW and avalanche conditions are generally safe. Watch for isolated wind slabs from Sunday's south winds. Also watch for small, wet loose avalanches on south facing slopes as the day warms.
special announcement

At 6PM on February 17 at Alpine Distilling in Park City, join a presentation on the UAC's Avalanche Awareness Know Before You Go Program then learn about how we perceive aroma and taste through whiskey while seeing how Alpine Distilling crafts local, award winning spirits. The evening will feature a specialty cocktail made with Alpine Distilling's Persistent (Weak Layer) Vodka and include a raffle for a backcountry kit (beacon, shovel, and probe) donated by Backcountry.com. Contact [email protected] for details and reservations.

current conditions

It's relatively calm and cold this morning with consistent temperature and wind speeds across all elevations. Temperatures are hovering around 20 degrees F at most places. Light winds in valleys and at ridgetops are averaging 5 mph gusting to 10 mph from the SE. An outlier was the Arrowhead station at Sundance showing winds averaging 20 mph. All other sites had light winds. This morning should be a beautiful one to be in the mountains with such light winds and cold temperatures.

Yesterday's snowfall produced only a trace of snow in the Provo area mountains. Photo below shows snow coverage around Timpanogos and minimal snow at low and mid elevations.
recent activity

On Sunday there were some shallow, loose wet avalanches on southerly facing slopes especially ones with exposed rock bands. There were also some shallow, loose dry sluffs. These small slides occurred predictably and were not big enough to bury a person.

Despite Sunday's strong south winds, ski areas reported minimal wind slabs and mostly sluffing of the new snow in steep terrain.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

For today watch out for three things:

  1. Isolated wind slabs from strong south winds two days ago. These should be easy to identify by their location (near ridgetops and under cornices) and by their appearance (smooth rounded snow surface). They shouldn't be too large by area and will be easy to avoid.
  2. On south aspects today, shallow wet loose snow slides should occur predictably as the day warms. These sluffs should only invovle a few inches of new snow sliding on an ice crust and won't entrain enough snow to bury a person, just push them downhill.
  3. With a very small chance of a persistent slab avalanche (see discussion below), consider slopes with a clean runout free of trees or rocks.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

If you dig to the ground (which doesn't take much effort), you'll likely find obvious layers of faceted snow. These layers are widespread but their strength varies. For now, they are dormant until significant snow falls and adds enough stress to cause more persistent slab avalanches. It would likely take a foot or more of snow. Triggering a persistent slab avalanche is unlikely but a small chance remains.

See a short discussion in this video.
weather

Today will be a beautiful sunny day in the mountains. Air temperatures will climb to near freezing at trailheads and into the mid 20's F at ridgetops. With strong sunshine and light winds, it should feel a lot warmer. Winds will blow 5-10 mph eventually shifting to the SW by the end of the day. Cold air will descend over Utah tomorrow, with some precipitation arriving tomorrow night and continuing into early Thursday morning. Only a few inches of snow is expected.
general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.