Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Provo Area Mountains Issued by Mark Staples for Sunday - January 7, 2018 - 5:46am
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The new snow should create shallow avalanches in many areas today. Northerly facing slopes at upper elevations with 5 inches of snow or more could have larger avalanches break 2-3 feet deep. The potential for these slides creates dangerous avalanche conditions and the danger is CONSIDERABLE upper elevation slopes. A MODERATE danger exists on mid and lower elevation slopes and ones with a southerly aspect.
special announcement

We have discount lift tickets for Alta, Snowbird, Brighton, Solitude, Deer Valley, Snowbasin,and Beaver Mountain. Details and order information here. All proceeds from these go towards paying for avalanche forecasting and education!
current conditions

Since yesterday morning 3-5 inches of snow (11% denisty) fell in the Provo area mountains. This dense snow contains 0.4-0.6 inches of water. This morning temperatures are in the low 20's F at ridgetops and in the high 20's F at trailheads.

Winds are mostly calm this morning. Slightly stronger winds blew yesterday afternoon from the SW and NW at 10-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph. Because yesterday's snow was relatively warm and dense, these winds were probably not strong enough to transport significant amounts of snow except at the highest elevations.
recent activity

No slides were reported yesterday in the Provo area mountains. However, in the Central Wasatch Mountains yesterday, skiers remotely triggered small slide 2-3 inches deep at the head of Snake Creek Canyon. A remotely triggered slide is one that is triggered from some distance and is a major red flag of unstable conditions. Photo - Kyle H.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Prior to yesterday's storm the snow surface on many slopes became weak and faceted on most slopes other than ones facing SW, S, and SE. The 3-4 inches of new snow resting on these facets should be easy to trigger today where rest on this faceted layer. While not particularly dangerous being only a few inches deep, these slides should occur in many areas. The old snow surface on other slopes was a mix of ice crusts, wind slabs, and other surfaces that were not weak. The new snow arrived wet and will likely bond well to these old surfaces.

Larger avalanches are possible in some places that received 5 inches of snow containing 0.6 inches of water. Weak facets buried deeper in the snowpack could fracture and produce deeper and more dangerous slides.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

Warm temperatures and sunshine today should dampen the snow on southerly aspects. In many places the new snow rests on an ice crust. As the snow gets wet, there may some small, wet loose avalanches today on these aspects but shouldn't be a major concern and will occur predictably as the day warms.
weather

Clouds and fog will slowly dissipate this morning as another ridge of high pressure builds and brings clear skies and sunshine by this afternoon. Temperatures should reach the mid 30's F later today and winds will remain light.

The good news is that this ridge of high pressure will be short lived as a minor trough of low pressure arrives Monday night with a few inches of snow. A larger trough of low pressure follows the smaller one and arrives Tuesday night.
general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.