Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Ogden Area Mountains Issued by Mark Staples for Saturday - March 17, 2018 - 7:36am
bottom line

Today the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at upper elevations. With new snow and strong southerly winds, fresh wind slabs will be found that will be easy to trigger. Slopes without wind-blown snow still have the potential for deep slab avalanches.
special announcement

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current conditions

Overnight Powder Mountain and the Monte Cristo area received 3-4 inches of snow while the Snowbasn and Ben Lomond areas received a trace. Temperatures this morning are near 30 degrees F at ridgetops and lower 20’s F at 9000 feet. Winds increased since yesterday and are blowing 20-30 mph gusting 45 mph from the S and SW at peaks and ridges near 9000 feet. At lower elevations this morning, cat drivers at ski areas are reporting minimal drifting.

When assessing avalanche danger, we look at snow water equivalent (SWE) not snow amounts because it tells us how much weight was added to the snowpack. Buried weak layers don’t care how much snow or rain fell, only how much weight was added. Total water amounts since Wednesday morning are:
recent activity

Ski Patrols in the Ogden area reported easily triggering soft slab avalanches at the very top part of the mountain yesterday. They also reported two shallow, storm snow avalanches that happened naturaly Thursday night during heavy snowfall.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

With more snow and strong S and SW winds this morning, expect to see more wind slabs that can be easily triggered today. They should be larger and much more widespread than they were yesterday. Look for fresh deposits of wind-blown snow from top-loading just under ridgetops and from cross loading along gullies. See images below of top and cross loading.

Also with more snow falling today, watch for instabilities within the new snow even on slopes without wind-blown snow. Look for cracking in the new snow. Test bonding of the new snow on small slopes where the consequences of triggering an avalanche are small.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Buried layers of weak facets are still lurking on shaded, more northerly facing slopes. Unfortunatley these slopes are ones with the best coverage and where we want to ride. New snow from this week, plus wind-blown snow from today's strong southerly winds has added stress to these layers. We haven't heard of an deep slab avalanches laterly in the Ogden area mountains. This is partly because these layers are possibly a bit stronger and less widespread than other zones further south. It may also be partly due to less traffic in the Ogden area backcountry.
weather

A cold front in Nevada this morning is approaching northern Utah. It should bring an additional 3-5 inches of snow which should fall mostly this morning. Light snow showers should continue through the afternoon. Strong south winds will continue until his front passes, and they should start to diminish this afternoon. Temperatures shouldn’t change much from where they are this morning. They may warm a bit at lower elevations with normal daytime warming but could drop some at higher elevations once the cold front arrives.
general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.