Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Ogden Area Mountains Issued by Paige Pagnucco for Saturday - March 3, 2018 - 5:24am
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The Utah Avalanche Center has issued an AVALANCHE WATCH for dangerous avalanche conditions developing later today and overnight tonight.

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE as dangerous avalanche conditions exist on steep, upper elevation slopes with freshly, wind-drifted snow. Wind drifts can be found around the compass, both along and well off the ridges and will increase in depth and distribution throughout the day. With recent human-triggered persistent slab avalanches, north through east facing mid and upper elevation slopes that have weak, faceted layers should be avoided.

With a complex snowpack as well as complex weather, continue to use cautious route finding, careful snowpack evaluation and conservative decision-making. Terrain is your friend today as you'll find better and safer skiing and riding conditions on lower-angled, wind sheltered slopes, with no steep slopes above.
avalanche watch

THE FOREST SERVICE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS ISSUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WATCH.

* TIMING…IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY

* AFFECTED AREA…FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH INCLUDING THE WASATCH RANGE...BEAR RIVER RANGE...AND THE UINTA MOUNTAINS.

* AVALANCHE DANGER…THE AVALANCHE DANGER FOR THE WATCH AREA IS CONSIDERABLE AND IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO HIGH BY SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS…STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CREATE DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS BY EARLY SUNDAY, AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. BOTH HUMAN TRIGGERED AND NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES.

BACKCOUNTRY TRAVELERS SHOULD CONSULT WWW.UTAHAVALANCHECENTER.ORG OR CALL 1-888-999-4019 FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

THIS WATCH DOES NOT APPLY TO SKI AREAS WHERE AVALANCHE HAZARD REDUCTION MEASURES ARE PERFORMED.
special announcement

To get help in an emergency (to request a rescue) in the Wasatch, call 911. Be prepared to give your GPS coordinates or the run name.

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry, but no one is hurt and you do not need assistance, please notify the nearest ski area dispatch to avoid a needless response by rescue teams. Thanks.

Episode 6 of the UAC podcast "A Conversation with Tom Kimbrough, Hemingway of the Wasatch" is live. We explore ideas about lifetime exposure to risk and what role Buddhism has played in his life as a climber, as a skier, and as a soon-to-be octogenarian. We talk about what has changed over the years in snow science and the role of mentorship in the world of forecasting and other professions and pursuits. Check it out on ITunes, Stitcher, the UAC blog.

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current conditions

With almost identical conditions to yesterday morning, temperatures this morning are in the 20's F and winds are still howling in the Ogden area mountains with Ogden Peak averaging 50+ mph with 80 mph gusts overnight. The mountains picked up 1-3 inches of snow. The aforementioned strong winter storm system, though delayed, is now scheduled to really impact the zone overnight tonight with the potential for 1-2 feet of snow by Sunday night. Expect similar stormy conditions again today with continued strong southwest winds. Given the past 24 hours of wind damage, riding conditions are now highly variable with very sheltered, low angle slopes facing the northern part of the compass holding the best hope for any soft snow.

Ogden Peak Weather Station:

recent activity

Ski area control teams reported prolific results yesterday with explosive work, releasing many hard wind slabs 1-3' deep in unopened, upper elevation terrain.

Wednesday, 2 separate slides were triggered in Hells Canyon, both at 8500', on northerly facing slopes, and running 2000' vertical feet down into the gully bottom.

Wednesday Feb. 28, Snowboard triggered slide, Hells Canyon. pc: Snowbasin patrol.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Same as yesterday, winds cranked overnight in the Ogden area mountains - see graph in current conditions - and will continue to be the main influencer again today as speeds should average in the 30's mph with gusts upwards of 50+ mph. They are expected to back down a bit in the afternoon without changing direction. Though they'll blow primarily from the southwest, all aspects will be affected. Wind drifted snow will quickly form stiff wind slabs near ridgelines and crossloading will likely occur on or around terrain features like subridges and gullies on exposed slopes off the ridgelines. There will be wind slabs building on top of wind slabs today so avoid steep slopes with freshly wind drifted snow and look for obvious signs of instability like cracking or collapsing. (click here to learn more about wind slabs.)

Cornices are becoming more widespread along ridgelines and will continue to grow larger and more sensitive with today’s strong winds. Cornices often break back further than expected, on to what looks like flat terrain. Give them a wide berth and avoid travel below them.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Avalanches triggered Wednesday on buried layers of faceted snow on steep slopes show dangerous conditions exist in the Ogden area mountains. Many slopes have poor structure – soft sugary, weak layers, both mid-pack and near the ground. It seems some of the steep slopes are just waiting for a trigger – and which slopes will slide are unpredictable - though slopes facing northerly through easterly are the most likely places to trigger a slide and should be avoided, especially in continuously steep terrain or slopes with terrain such as gullies, trees or cliff bands. This type of avalanche has the potential to run far down into low elevation terrain as evidenced by Wednesday's Hells Canyon slides so avoid travel under steep northwest through east facing slopes. Getting caught in this type of avalanche could be unsurvivable.

As with wind slabs, cracking and collapsing are bulls-eye clues to instability, but for persisent slabs these clues may not be present, and snow pit tests could be unreliable.

To learn more about persisent slab and other types of avalanche problems, click here.

weather

The National Weather Service has continued its Winter Storm Warning that includes the Ogden area mountains until 5pm Sunday evening. Expect little snow but very windy conditions again today. Southwesterly winds will blow 20-30 mph with gusts over 40 mph. Temperatures will stay in the 20's F but will feel much colder with the wind chill. Expected snowfall totals today are only 1-2 inches as the bulk of the snow is expected to arrive this evening and overnight. The Ogden zone could see 1-2 feet of snow by Sunday.

general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.