Advisory: Ogden Area Mountains | utahavalanchecenter.org

Avalanche Advisory

Advisory: Ogden Area Mountains	Issued by Drew Hardesty for Sunday - February 11, 2018 - 7:22am

bottom line

The avalanche danger is generally LOW. Low danger does not mean no danger and risk is inherent in mountain travel. Human triggered avalanches 1-2' deep are unlikely but not impossible. The most suspect areas include steep thin and rocky north to northeast facing slopes above about 8500'.

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current conditions

Skies are mostly clear with temps in the teens. Winds have backed to the southwest and are blowing 15mph, gusting to 20. Skiing and riding conditions are variable with both sun and wind damaged terrain.

Year in Review. Back in mid to late December, we took stock of our thin snowpack and how it may play a role in avalanche conditions for the winter. Since then, we've had many many very close calls involving very experienced individuals. And now, almost two months later, how is our winter stacking up? Jim Steenburgh, in his highly recommended blog Wasatch Weather Weenies, brings us up to date. (Teaser: we sit firmly in 2nd place after the disastrous winter of 76/77.)

recent activity

No recent avalanche activity has been reported from the Ogden area mountains.

Avalanche Problem 1

type	aspect/elevation	characteristics
		LIKELIHOOD LIKELY UNLIKELY SIZE LARGE SMALL TREND INCREASING DANGER SAME DECREASING DANGER over the next 12 hours
description Although unlikely, persistent slab avalanches remain possible in isolated steep terrain. The most experienced people are still avoiding the bulls-eye terrain - steep, north and northeast facing slopes, especially those that are rocky, wind loaded or have a shallow snowpack. These are the slopes where you are most likely to trigger one of these deeper slab avalanches. · Widespread buried faceted layers appear dormant now, and persistent slab avalanches are unlikely, but if you trigger one it will be dangerous. · If you choose to travel on steep slopes, select slopes with clean run outs, where a mistake in your stability evaluation won’t send you rocketing off a cliff, into trees or into a gully. · Pay attention to possible signs of instability like cracking and whumpfing or collapsing, but remember these signs are not likely to be present so you have to dig down and look for the poor snow structure. NE facing slope near 8800' on 2/8/18

type

aspect/elevation

characteristics

LIKELIHOOD

LIKELY

UNLIKELY

SIZE

LARGE

SMALL

TREND

INCREASING DANGER

SAME

DECREASING DANGER

over the next 12 hours

description

Although unlikely, persistent slab avalanches remain possible in isolated steep terrain. The most experienced people are still avoiding the bulls-eye terrain - steep, north and northeast facing slopes, especially those that are rocky, wind loaded or have a shallow snowpack. These are the slopes where you are most likely to trigger one of these deeper slab avalanches.

· Widespread buried faceted layers appear dormant now, and persistent slab avalanches are unlikely, but if you trigger one it will be dangerous.

· If you choose to travel on steep slopes, select slopes with clean run outs, where a mistake in your stability evaluation won’t send you rocketing off a cliff, into trees or into a gully.

· Pay attention to possible signs of instability like cracking and whumpfing or collapsing, but remember these signs are not likely to be present so you have to dig down and look for the poor snow structure.

NE facing slope near 8800' on 2/8/18

weather

Under clear skies, moutain temperatures should reach into the low 20s at 10,000' and the mid-30s at 8500'. Winds will start to back to the southwest at 15mph, but may reach 20-25mph hourly averages by late afternoon. Another weak system moves through tomorrow afternoon/eve and again later Wednesday with some more promise over the late weekend.

general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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