Advisory: Ogden Area Mountains | utahavalanchecenter.org

Avalanche Advisory

Advisory: Ogden Area Mountains	Issued by Mark Staples for Tuesday - January 30, 2018 - 7:15am

bottom line

Today a MODERATE danger exists on upper elevations on west, north, and east facing slopes where persistent slab avalanches are possible today. Additionally, warm temperatures and some sun today may cause some small, wet loose slides on south aspects.

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current conditions

Temperatures this morning are generally in the mid to upper 30's F and at freezing above 9000 feet. Winds are mostly blowing 10-15 mph from the SW with some stronger winds at the highest elevations blowing 30-40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

A combination of rime on Sunday and warm air temperatures on Sunday and Monday has made it difficult to find good powder. Look for it in sheltered northerly facing treed slopes. Yesterday in the Monte Cristo area, I was happily surprised not to find the rime crust and about 10 inches of dense, settled powder on sheltered slopes. Unfortunately, this area has a buried layer of surface hoar. Its not an issue now, but could be if we get more snow.

recent activity

The last reported avalanches in the Ogden area mountains were over a week ago.

The Colorado Avalanche Information Center completed their report from a fatal avalanche about a week ago and is worth reading because conditions there are similar to conditions in Utah. Full report HERE.

Avalanche Problem 1

type	aspect/elevation	characteristics
		LIKELIHOOD LIKELY UNLIKELY SIZE LARGE SMALL TREND INCREASING DANGER SAME DECREASING DANGER over the next 12 hours
description Unfortunately, the answer to stability is not yes or no. It's a matter of odds or probability. Each day after the last snowfall or wind storm (which was last Thursday with a little wind and a trace of snow over the weekend) the odds of triggering a persistent slab avalanche decrease just a little bit. Many slopes have obvious layers of weak, faceted snow about a foot above the ground on top of much harder snow. It's been over a week since the last avalanche and warm weather is generally helping weak layers slowly gain strength. What to do? Every slope is a little different. Some are more likely to slide and some have better/worse consequences if they do. On a low angle slope near the one you hope to ride, dig a quick snowpit and perform and Extended Column Test. If a fracture pops across the column - go somewhere else, this is red flag. Choose a slope with run out free of trees, rocks or cliffs - basically anything that could cause trauma if the slope slides. Lastly, watch your partners from a safe zone that is not in the runout zone of any avalanche path.

type

aspect/elevation

characteristics

LIKELIHOOD

LIKELY

UNLIKELY

SIZE

LARGE

SMALL

TREND

INCREASING DANGER

SAME

DECREASING DANGER

over the next 12 hours

description

Unfortunately, the answer to stability is not yes or no. It's a matter of odds or probability. Each day after the last snowfall or wind storm (which was last Thursday with a little wind and a trace of snow over the weekend) the odds of triggering a persistent slab avalanche decrease just a little bit. Many slopes have obvious layers of weak, faceted snow about a foot above the ground on top of much harder snow. It's been over a week since the last avalanche and warm weather is generally helping weak layers slowly gain strength.

What to do? Every slope is a little different. Some are more likely to slide and some have better/worse consequences if they do.

On a low angle slope near the one you hope to ride, dig a quick snowpit and perform and Extended Column Test. If a fracture pops across the column - go somewhere else, this is red flag.
Choose a slope with run out free of trees, rocks or cliffs - basically anything that could cause trauma if the slope slides.
Lastly, watch your partners from a safe zone that is not in the runout zone of any avalanche path.

Avalanche Problem 2

type	aspect/elevation	characteristics
		LIKELIHOOD LIKELY UNLIKELY SIZE LARGE SMALL TREND INCREASING DANGER SAME DECREASING DANGER over the next 24 hours
description Today's partly cloudy skies should limit heating of the snowpack from solar radiation. However, near freezing temperatures mean the snowpack won't need much additional heat to become wet and produce a few small wet loose avalanches.

weather

More warm temperatures are expected today before a dry cold front arrives this evening. Daytime high temperatures should reach the upper 40's F. Winds will steadily increase today. Temperatures will start dropping at the end of the day as cold air descends into northern Utah. Wednesday should be cooler than today, then warm temperatures return for Thursday and Friday. Some snowfall may come Friday night...at least there's a chance.

general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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