Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Ogden Area Mountains Issued by Drew Hardesty for Saturday - January 27, 2018 - 7:15am
bottom line

A scary MODERATE danger exists in the mid and upper elevation west to north to easterly facing slopes. Human triggered avalanches 1-3'+ deep remain possible in this terrain. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully. The good news is that one doesn't need steep west to north to east facing slopes to enjoy world class powder. Keep the slope angles low; watch for overhead hazard. Shallow wind drifts and point release sluffs are also possible in the steeper terrain today.

If the winds pick up earlier than expected, the danger for wind drifts will rise accordingly.
special announcement

Powder Mountain has their Beacon Training Park up and running near Hidden Lake. Grab your transciever and head over to test your rescue skills!
current conditions

Skies are partly cloudy with mountain temps in the mid teens to low-20s. Winds are southwesterly, blowing 15mph with gusts to 20. Riding conditions are excellent and coverage sits at 2-3' along the Ogden skyline and up to 4' in the Monte Cristo area.

recent activity

Control work at the mountain resorts produced some loose snow and shallow wind slab avalanches. One hard slab pocket was also released with explosives.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

Our persistent slab problem isn't going to heal overnight. And even if stability slowly increases over time, these avalanches may continue to spring out of dormancy with each subsequent loading event. These avalanches are insidious: they continue to occur with many tracks already on the slope, with no signs of cracking or collapsing, and each often triggered from a distance. It's why expert intution is impossible with these types of avalanches and even the most experienced practitioners are surprised. It reminds me of 2010 when many very experienced people were caught off-guard (myself included) by a similar snowpack structure - with in particular a fatality nearly eight years ago to the day in the Meadow Chutes of Silver Fork...and another two in that same January in Hell's Canyon near Snowbasin and Grandview Peak in upper City Creek.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Shallow wind drifts and loose snow sluffing may be expected in steep, high elevation, exposed terrain. Remember that your risk is amplified by your terrain choices. Taking a ride in a shallow sluff in the "steep and rad couloir" is problematic if said rider is pinballing between the walls and bouncing over cliffbands. The glade avalanches, too, host their own issues with slides straining avalanche victims through trees.

The take-home point here: Slow down. Consider the consequences of being caught and carried.
weather

A warm air advection pattern sets up for the next 18 hours or so, with veering winds, warming temperatures, and perhaps a good rime event overnight, particularly in areas north of I-80. The Logan area mountains may even see a trace to an inch of snow. For today, we'll have increasing clouds, 20mph winds from the southwest, and ridgetop temps warming to the upper teens. 11,000' winds tonight may see hourly speeds of 40-45mph with gusts to 60. Expect some clearing by Sunday afternoon/evening with mostly clear skies and temps reaching into the low 30s by Monday.
general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.