Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Ogden Area Mountains Issued by Mark Staples for Saturday - December 23, 2017 - 6:35am
bottom line

Today the avalanche danger is rising to CONSIDERABLE at the upper elevations on wind loaded slopes. A MODERATE danger will exist on mid elevation slopes where there is any wind loading or where the new snow is resting on old snow that became weak and faceted. This storm will help build the snowpack but it remains thin and hitting rocks or having an avalanche drag you into rocks remains a major hazard.
special announcement

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current conditions

As of 6 a.m. 8 inches of snow (0.6 inches of water) had fallen with more coming. Temperatures above 8000 feet were around 20 degrees and winds around 9000 feet were blowing 20 mph gusting 30-40 mph from the SW.

Prior to this storm there was only 1-2 feet of snow on notherly facing slopes above 8000 feet. Most southerly facing slopes were bare ground until receiving 2-5 inches of snow on Wednesday. This storm will help build the snowpack, but hitting rocks remains a serious hazard.
recent activity

There has been on recent avalanche activity reported in the Ogden area mountains.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Today's snow combined with SW winds will form fresh wind slabs that should be easy to trigger today. With continued snowfall and wind through the morning and into the afternoon, these wind slabs will remain unstable and will grow in size. These wind slabs may be extra sensitive because they are resting on snow from Wednesday that became slightly faceted and weak during the cold weather.

Look for these fresh wind slabs mostly on NE facing slopes as a result of SW winds, but swirling mountain winds can load or cross load slopes on all aspects. The best thing to do is simply look for evidence of fresh wind loading and avoid those areas.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Many slopes on the northern half of the compass at mid and upper elevations that held old snow became weak and faceted. This weak snow is mostly on top of a very very hard ice crust now buried 1-2 feet deep. On slopes not affected by the wind, avalanches may break on this faceted snow if not first thing this morning, then they may happen later this afternoon. To assess this avalanche problem, test very small slopes and see how the new snow reacts under your feet. Also, dig a quick snowpit until you hit a very hard ice layer and perform a quick stability test.
weather

Snowfall will continue into this afternoon until a NW flow shuts off snowfall. Depending on the timing of the NW winds, an additional 6 inches of snow should fall or maybe more. Temperatures may only warm a few degrees into the mid 20s F. Winds should continue blowing 20 mph from the SW with 30-40 mph gusts and may ease some when they shift to the NW.
general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.