Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Ogden Area Mountains Issued by Drew Hardesty for Tuesday - March 14, 2017 - 6:37am
bottom line

This morning's LOW danger will rapidly rise to at least MODERATE with direct sun and daytime highs reaching toward 60°F at 8500'. All elevation sunny aspects and low to mid elevation northerly aspects will be most susceptible to natural and human-triggered wet activity. If and when the snow becomes wet and unsupportable, it's time to move to a cooler aspect or low angle slopes.




special announcement

Spring Special: We have a few donated Snowbird, Snowbasin, Solitude, and Brighton discount lift tickets left and have just lowered the price. Ski a day and benefit the Utah Avalanche Center! Order here.


Part 3 of The Little Things (that might keep you alive) is hot off the press - has to do with safe travel protocols in the backcountry. Not to be missed!

current conditions

Winter, where are you tonight? As of 4am, mountain temperatures are 5-8°F warmer than they were at this time yesterday morning and we're set for daytime highs near 60°F at 8500' this afternoon. Current mountain temps are in the mid-30s along the ridgelines. The protected thermal belt mid-elevation temps are currently in the mid 40s. We still have a few hours for the snowpack to shed some more heat, but this morning's surface refreeze will be more superficial and transient than before. The westerlies are 20-30mph, gusting to 35-40.

The key in the spring is to start early and exit early.

recent activity

No reports of activity from yesterday.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

Much the same from yesterday except that the snow will soften much earlier than yesterday and the mid-elevation northerly aspects will also dampen and become susceptible to wet sluffs.

Just like clockwork, today's sunny aspects will transition from rock-hard coral to soft, damp, and supportable to wet and unstable. Play your cards right in playing your aspects right. Move from east to south to west facing terrain to catch that "soft, damp and supportable window" on each. And timing is everything. Arrive too early and it's a visit to the dentist's office. Arrive too late and you've put yourself at risk for wet avalanches. If you're riding through unsupportable wet snow, seeing pinwheels and rollerballs, or observing natural wet loose sluffs, it's time to hit the road.

We may start to see the much more dangerous wet slab avalanches with the radically warm temperatures during the day and superficial refreezes - at best - during the overnight hours. Collapsing is often a poor sign as a refreeze collapses the wet grains beneath.

For more info on wet slabs, click on link in profile.

A post shared by Utah Avalanche Center (@utavy) on

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The cornices along the mid and upper elevation ridgelines have become enormous and unruly this year. With enhanced warming, they will continue to be exceptionally dangerous and unstable. Remember that they will break well back beyond the apex of the ridgeline. It's best to approach any ridgeline with caution or with a spotter who can see where the snow ends and the earth begins. These cornices have gained enough mass to potentially trigger an avalanche on the slope below. Cornice-fall and cornice-related avalanches account for roughly 5% of our avalanche fatalities. Glide avalanches just under 2%.

Avalanche Problem 3
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Glide avalanches are challenging to predict, but tend to release during periods of rapidly warming temperatures that both enhance the slow downhill glide rate of the entire snowpack and allow for snow melt to percolate down to the ground interface. They can release without warning anytime - day or night - and produce large, catastrophic avalanches and impressive debris piles. Glide releases are uncommon in the Ogden area mountains, but have released in the past.

You can read about the Feb 2013 glide accident in Broads Fork here and the tragic double fatality in Stairs Gulch from April 2001 here.

weather

We'll have mostly sunny skies today with temps warming to near 60 at 8500' and the low 40s at 10,000'. West winds will blow 15mph. A weak disturbance quickly moves through on Thursday, but this is only a pause as ridgetop temps spiral even toward the mid to upper 40s by the weekend. Models do suggest that the ridge weakens with perhaps something moving through Sunday night into Monday.

general announcements

Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche conditions. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.

To get help in an emergency (to request a rescue) in the Wasatch, call 911. Be prepared to give your GPS coordinates or the run name. Dispatchers have a copy of the Wasatch Backcountry Ski map.

Backcountry Emergencies. It outlines your step-by-step method in the event of a winter backcountry incident.

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry, but no one is hurt and you do not need assistance, please notify the nearest ski area dispatch to avoid a needless response by rescue teams. Thanks.

EMAIL ADVISORY If you would like to get the daily advisory by email you will need to subscribe here.

DAWN PATROL Hotline updated daily by 5-530am - 888-999-4019 option 8.

TWITTER Updates for your mobile phone - DETAILS

UDOT canyon closures: LINK TO UDOT, or on Twitter, follow @UDOTavy, @CanyonAlerts or @AltaCentral

Utah Avalanche Center mobile app - Get your advisory on your iPhone along with great navigation and rescue tools.

Powderbird Helicopter Skiing - Blog/itinerary for the day

Lost or Found something in the backcountry? - http://nolofo.com/

Ski Utah mobile snow updates

To those skinning uphill at resorts: it is critical to know the resort policy on uphill travel. You can see the uphill travel policy for each resort here.

Benefit the Utah Avalanche Center when you shop from Backcountry.com or REI: Click this link for Backcountry.com or this link to REI, shop, and they will donate a percent of your purchase price to the UAC. Both offer free shipping (with some conditions) so this costs you nothing!

Benefit the Utah Avalanche Center when you buy or sell on ebay - set the Utah Avalanche Center as a favorite non-profit in your ebay account here and click on ebay gives when you buy or sell. You can choose to have your seller fees donated to the UAC, which doesn't cost you a penny.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.