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Avalanche Advisory
| Advisory: Ogden Area Mountains | Issued by Evelyn Lees for Sunday - February 12, 2017 - 7:04am |
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bottom line The avalanche danger is mostly LOW this morning, but will rise to MODERATE by afternoon on steep, sunny slopes for wet loose sluffs and on all low elevation slopes. Be very alert for rapidly warming snow over short periods of time today and as you change elevations and aspects. When the snow becomes damps where you are, move to lower angle terrain or a cooler aspect. On steep upper elevation slopes, there remains a MODERATE danger of triggering a new snow slide or fresh wind drift. Cornices can break back further than expected.
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current conditions It’s a crisp, cool morning with clear skies and temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s. Winds are from an easterly direction, and most stations are averaging less than 15 mph, even Mt Ogden. |
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recent activity Yesterday, the reports from the Ogden mountain resorts were of new snow slabs sensitive to skis and explosives, large enough to catch and carry a person, and perhaps bury them (D1 - D1.5) In the backcountry, the debris from very large wet slides was observed off Cutler ridge. Timing of the avalanches is unknown. Observation here. Bill Brandt photos:
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Avalanche Problem 1
| type | aspect/elevation | characteristics |
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LIKELIHOOD
 LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
 LARGE
SMALL
TREND
 INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
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description
Even with a decent overnight refreeze and a cold start to the morning, the direct sun will be strong today, heating the new snow. Expect to easily trigger wet sluffs on steep sunny slopes as the snow becomes damp - first on east then south then west. Roller balls and pinwheels are a first sign of heating. I expect wet loose sluffs to be triggered on the mid and low elevation shady, northerly facing slopes, too, because the buried old snow is still damp. Dense wet snow can quickly catch you and push you around, and even small steep terrain features such as road and creek banks can pile up enough debris to bury a person. |
Avalanche Problem 2
| type | aspect/elevation | characteristics |
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LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
 INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
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description
Keep a sharp eye on the wind speeds where you are today. Currently, all Ogden stations are averaging less than 15 mph. But even a small uptick in the wind speed can start to drift snow. Look for and avoid the rounded wind drifts, which will be found along the upper elevation ridge lines on a variety of aspects, including westerly. If you are heading to the highest peaks of the range today, you will find wind slabs. The new storm snow could still be sensitive today on steep upper elevation slopes, mostly on north through easterly facing slopes. Cornices are still an issue. Both old and new cornices are sensitive, break back further than you would expect, and a cornice could trigger a new snow slide on the slope below. |
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weather A beautiful day with clear, sunny skies – if only it wasn’t going to be so warm. Temperatures will rise to near 40 at 8000’ and into the upper 20s along the high ridge lines. The easterly winds should remain light, averaging less than 15 mph. High pressure will remain over the area through Thursday, with unseasonably warm temperatures once again by midweek. An active weather pattern with a series of storms should resume around Friday. |
general announcements
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