Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Ogden Area Mountains Issued by Paige Pagnucco for Friday - February 3, 2017 - 5:36am
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The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep, wind drifted, upper and mid elevation slopes. Avoid steep slopes in exposed terrain where moderate winds combined with moderate snowfall have and will continue to develop wind slabs. With rain levels forecast up to 6500' today, watch for wet avalanche activity on steep slopes at lower elevations on all aspects.




current conditions

This morning it is 33 F at the Ben Lomond 8000' weather station.This station also picked up about .6" of snow water equivalent in the last 24 hours. Winds on Ogden Peak are out of the south southwest at 20-25 mph with gusts up to 32 mph.

It got quite warm yesterday and the snow that fell at lower elevations was mashed potato-like. We observed moderate snowfall above 7500' on Rodeo Ridge. Turning conditions were decent in sheltered mid-elevation terrain with about 3-6" of new dense snow. There are a variety of surface conditions ranging from sastrugi to bomber to breakable crusts to softer, supportable older snow in north facing terrain. It appears as if any new surface hoar formed during the week was destroyed by the winds and warmer temperatures, though there may be some hiding in sheltered, shady terrain.

recent activity

A few small wet loose sluffs occurred at the lower elevations yesterday. Manageable small wind slabs and cornices were reported as well.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

West southwest winds picked up during periods of moderate snowfall yesterday. The winds combined with the dense new snow formed hard wind slabs on upper elevation leeward slopes. I observed some minimal cracking yesterday at lower elevations but expect the slabs to be a bit more touchy in higher, more exposed terrain. With winds expected to increase in strength and snowfall returning this afternoon, the danger for wind slab avalanches will increase on steep, high and mid elevation exposed slopes. Sensitive cornices will also be an issue on ridgetops and near exposed terrain features.

Slopes from east to south to west developed a hard sun crust this past week which could act as a slick sliding surface for any wind deposited snow. (Snowmobilers take note - it'll be hard to find purchase on some of these hard crusts and, with a shallow coating of new snow, steep slopes might become quite slippery.)
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

It's getting harder and harder to find the elusive buried surface hoar and associated near surface facets that were quite apparent before the last storm. Similar to Brian Smith's observation from Tuesday, we were unable to find buried surface hoar yesterday or really any significant persistent weak layers in the top 5 feet for that matter. Compression and settlement may have mostly snuffed them out but I'm not totally convinced there gone everywhere. At 7500' on a north facing slope we found a total snow height of over 12 feet, a deeper than average pack for the area. At this point, I think we'd need to get another atmospheric river event to reactivate persistent weak layers, which, again, would only be in isolated areas where the surface hoar or near surface facet's are well preserved.
Avalanche Problem 3
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

With the possibility of rain up to 6500', watch for loose wet avalanche activity on steep slopes on all aspects at lower elevations. There is also still a chance for roof avalanches today with warm temps and rain expected - stay out from under any roof that still holds a significant amount of snow.

weather

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory effective from noon today through 4pm Saturday. Snow is expected to develop this afternoon and become heavier this evening and overnight. It will gradually taper off by tomorrow afternoon. Temps will start off warm today then cool this afternoon before warming up again this evening. Southwest winds are forecast to increase in intensity throughout the day with speeds 15-20 mph and locally higher gusts. The Ogden area mountains could see 5-9" of snow by tomorrow.

general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exis