Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Sunday - March 18, 2018 - 6:24am
bottom line

The avalanche danger will likely rise to CONSIDERABLE today as blowing and accumulating snow create dangerous avalanche conditions, particularly in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain that faces NW-N-E. Human triggered wind slab avalanches will grow increasingly likely today, and deeper persistent slab avalanches will be possible. If we get more than about 6" of snow, loose dry, and storm slab avalanches will be possible on all aspects. Backcountry travelers need to be alert to changing conditions, and possess good snow stability assessment and route finding skills.

Out of the wind zone the avalanche danger is MODERATE.

Most low elevation terrain offers LOW danger.
special announcement

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current conditions

It is going to be a snowy, blowy, wintery day in the mountains! Heavy snowfall began around 5:00 a.m. and as of 7:00 a.m. automated readings were unreliable but I would guess we have already received 2-3". 6"-10" are possible today. Southerly winds continue to blow averaging 20 mph with gusting to 30 along the ridge tops. 10,000' temps are near 20 degrees.

Base depth in Gold Basin: 40" Base depth at Geyser Pass Trailhead: 24"

New snow totals in Gold Basin.

Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead, (9600')

Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

Road conditions to Geyser Pass Trailhead: 2-5” of new snow is on the road but several vehicles made it up yesterday.

Grooming conditions:The road into Gold Basin was rolled out yesterday.
recent activity

Forecaster Brett Kobernik remotely triggered this large avalanche on Thursday, on the Manti-Skyline. This area is in the north zone of the Manti-La Sal National Forest. This is a frightening display of the power of buried, persistent weak layers.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Blowing and drifting snow will create sensitive new wind slabs in upper elevation wind exposed terrain. These fresh drifts will cover slabs that formed yesterday, and wind loaded slopes today will be primed and ready. Avoid slopes steeper than 35 degrees that have a smooth rounded appearance and look for signs of growing instability such as cracking in the snow surface. A triggered wind slab today may also have the potential to step down into a buried weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous persistent slab avalanche.

A few of the ridges are starting to develop large cornices and today's winds will create new, sensitive additions. Give cornices a wide berth when you are traveling on ridge crests where they are present and be aware of what's above you.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

Thursday's storm added almost 3/4 of an inch of water weight to the snowpack and we are likley to see another half inch or more today. When we are dealing with buried weak layers, especially dormant ones, it's always a question of how much load can we add before they become active again. These are not huge water amounts, but I suspect that with the addtional load, some slopes might now be sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider. The most likely areas for triggering an avalanche up to 3' deep can be found in steep terrain right around treeline and above that faces NW-N-E. Shallow areas along slope margins, or near rock outcroppings create potential trigger spots, and avoidance of this type of terrain remains the safest course of action. The video below illustrates the current structure.

The snowpack is considerably weaker in areas of steep, wooded, or rocky terrain, or on slopes that have a more easterly component to them, and persistent slab avalanches are more likely in these areas.

Avalanche Problem 3
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

If we get more than 6" of snow we may start to see soft, cohesive storm slab avalanches on all aspects. If you notice cracking in the snow surface or soft slabs breaking up it is time to dial back your slope angle. Loose, dry snow sluffs will also start to run off of very steep slopes. As snow piles up, stay out from under avalanche paths.

weather

Blowing and drifting snow is on tap for today as a storm moves through our area. 6-10" of snow are possible with moderate to strong SW winds. High temps at 10,000' will be in the low 20's.

general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.