Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Tuesday - January 3, 2017 - 6:54am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep, upper-mid to upper elevation terrain that has a NW-N-E aspect, particularly in areas where there are deposits of wind drifted snow. Suspect the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as sub-ridges and beneath rocky outcrops. Elsewhere, the avalanche danger is generally LOW.
special announcement

Road Update 7:30 a.am. Grand County will be closing the road between 9:00 a.m and noon to widen the road below the parking lot.

current conditions


Moderate to strong WSW winds continue to strip snow from exposed slopes, depositing it in on leeward, northerly aspects. Wind and sun exposed slopes have taken a hit, especially above tree line. Soft, settled powder can still be found on sheltered, shady slopes.

Base depth in Gold Basin is 45" and the season total is 108" for 169% of normal.

For a full list of recent observations go here.

Storm totals and temperature in Gold Basin.(10,000')

Wind, temperature and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak.(11,700')

Snow totals, temperature and snow/water equivalent at the Geyser Pass Trailhead. (9600')
recent activity

This skier triggered avalanche occurred yesterday. Wind slabs such as this are the main type of problem we are dealing with right now as SW winds over the past several days have transported loose snow on to the leeward sides of terrain features such as the rock buttress in this photo. For more details go here.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Moderate to strong southwest winds over the past several days have been transporting snow and forming stiff, shallow wind slabs in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain, primarily on NW-NE-E aspects. Likely areas to find wind slabs are on the leeward side of ridge crests and terrain features or beneath rock buttresses. Suspect smooth rounded deposits of wind drifted snow, and avoid steep slopes that have a "fat" appearance.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Snowpits reveal an overall stabilization and strengthening of the snowpack. Weak layers on northerly aspects, though still present, are no longer reactive under stability tests, and a facet/crust weak layer that was very reactive on southerly aspects last week has broken down. This is good news, but with the continued presence of weak layers, I would still perform a stability analysis before jumping on to any steep slope with a NW-NE-E aspect. For a full report and snowpit profile go here.

weather

Tuesday

A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after 3pm. Patchy fog after 5pm. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 20. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.

Tonight

Snow, mainly after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow after 1am. Patchy fog before 9pm, then patchy fog after 10pm. Low around 18. Breezy, with a west wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Wednesday

Snow. Widespread blowing snow. Areas of fog before noon. High near 24. Breezy, with a west southwest wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Wednesday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 20. Breezy, with a west wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after noon. High near 21. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday Night

Snow, mainly before 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow before 11pm. Low around 10. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Friday

A 40 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 14.
general announcements

Grooming: Grooming is scheduled for today.

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The information in this advisory is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.