Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Saturday - January 7, 2017 - 7:09am
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The avalanche danger is MODERATE today on steep, upper elevation slopes that have a NW-E-SE aspect. Suspect the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as sub ridges and gully walls. Avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Out of the wind zone at mid and lower elevations the danger is mostly LOW.




special announcement
current conditions

The mountains picked up 3-5" of new snow from Thursday's storm. Conditions are still relatively thin, but we are inching forward. Dustin Randall was out yesterday and said that the grass is getting covered up! For a report from his travels go here. Southwest winds overnight have been in the 15-20 mph range and it's 13 degrees around 9000', 11 on Abajo Peak.

For real time weather data click on the links below:

Winds, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Camp Jackson.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Thursday's snow has blown into shallow drifts above tree line on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features. This hasn't contributed to a siginificant increase in the avalanche danger, but when you are out on the mountains, here are two potential problems to be aware of:

-Wind Slabs: Wind drifted snow accumulates on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features, in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. They are recognizable as smooth, rounded pillows of snow that may crack when when weight is applied. A triggered wind slab has the potential to break down into buried weak layers creating a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.

-Persistent Slab: The underlying snowpack is very weak, and several inches of faceted, sugar snow exist at the ground level. This upside down set up creates an unstable base for a load of snow on top, and in some isolated areas, the additional weight of a rider could trigger an avalanche down to this buried weak layer. you are most likely to encounter this problem on steep, upper elevation, north facing terrain where wind deposited snow has drifted over top of this weak structure.

Photo illustrates the current, weak snowpack structure. Note the weak, sugary layer of faceted snow at the bottom of the snowpack. This makes an unstable base for future snow loads.

weather

Today will be cold and dry with increasing clouds as the next round of moisture on an "atmospheric river" moves into the region. A chance for snow develops on Sunday with a moist, unsettled pattern on tap through most of next week.

Today

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. Breezy, with a south wind 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight

A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Sunday

A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 20 to 25 mph.

Sunday Night

A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 30 mph.

Monday

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Windy, with a southwest wind 30 to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.