Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Monday - January 2, 2017 - 6:43am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is generally LOW in the Abajo/Blue Mountains but isolated areas exist where a person might be able to trigger an avalanche. Steep, wind drifted, upper elevation slopes that face NW-N-E still warrant caution. An increase in snow and wind could bump the danger up to MODERATE in these areas. Snow cover remains very thin, and taking a ride in an avalanche in such shallow snow conditions would be a very bumpy road across the ground.




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current conditions

Snow conditions remain thin in the Abajo/Blue Mountains. For real time weather data click on the links below:

Winds, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Camp Jackson.


Still pretty thin up on south facing slopes above North Creek Pass.

Winter hungry folks are still finding enough snow to slide around on however.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The avalanche danger is mostly low in the Abajos largely due to low snow cover. The snowpack is very shallow and weak however, and there are some isolated areas where you might be able to trigger an avalanche, primarily on steep, upper elevation slopes that face the north half of the compass. Here are two things to consider:

-Wind Slabs: Isolated deposits of wind drifted snow may be lurking on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features, in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. They are recognizable as smooth, rounded pillows of snow and may sound hollow underneath. A triggered wind slab has the potential to break down into buried weak layers creating a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.

-Persistent Slab: The underlying snowpack is very weak, and several inches of faceted, sugar snow exist at the ground level. This upside down set up creates an unstable base for a load of snow on top, and in some isolated areas, the additional weight of a rider could trigger an avalanche down to this buried weak layer. you are most likely to encounter this problem on steep, upper elevation, north facing terrain where wind deposited snow has drifted over top of this weak structure.

Photo illustrates the current, weak snowpack structure. Note the weak, sugary layer of faceted snow at the bottom of the snowpack. This makes an unstable base for future snow loads.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description
weather

Unsettled weather is on tap for most of the week, unfortunately none of the systems look to be big storm producers.

Monday

Snow likely, mainly before 3pm. Areas of blowing snow before 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 25. Windy, with a southwest wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow likely, mainly between 7pm and 1am. Areas of blowing snow between 7pm and 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Tuesday

A 30 percent chance of snow before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 20 to 25 mph.

Tuesday Night

A 40 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 19. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.

Wednesday

A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Breezy, with a west wind around 20 mph.

Wednesday Night

A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Breezy.

Thursday

A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Breezy.

Thursday Night

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Breezy.

Friday

A chance of snow, mainly before 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 28.