Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Friday - December 23, 2016 - 7:13am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep, upper elevation slopes that have a NW-N-E aspect, on slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Elsewhere the avalanche danger is generally LOW.
special announcement
current conditions

Camp Jackson is reporting 8" of snow this morning, and slowly things are starting to add up. Overall, It's still pretty thin coverage with a lot of grass and bushes poking out, but every little bit helps. Southwesterly winds on Abajo Peak have been mostly light overnight, averaging 5-15 mph, with a spike last evening into the upper 20's between 5:00 and 7:00 p.m. It's currently 19 degrees up there at 11,000'.

After making it around and over numerous down trees in the North Creek Road, this finally shut me down.


Still pretty thin up there.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Winds have been pretty calm, but you may encounter an isolated wind slab on upper elevation, leeward slopes that have a N-NE-E aspects. Look for smooth rounded deposits of wind drifted snow and be alert to signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The underlying snowpack is very weak, and there may be areas where it is possible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche on the weak, sugary, faceted snow near the ground. You are most likely to find this problem on steep, upper elevation slopes that have a NW-N-E aspect.

weather

Today

A 50 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 32. South southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Tonight

Snow showers likely, mainly after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Saturday

Snow. High near 26. Windy, with a south wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow. Low around 12. Windy, with a south southwest wind 25 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Christmas Day

Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 17. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.