Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Saturday - December 3, 2016 - 7:09am
bottom line

Due to low snow cover, the avalanche danger is LOW in the Abajo Mountains. The snow pack is very shallow and weak at this time, and future snow loads will cause the danger to increase.




special announcement
current conditions

Snow cover in the Abajo Mountains is still quite thin and there isn't enough snow to recreate on beyond the road. The storm last week brought the first significant snow laying down about a foot in the upper elevations on top of about 6" of existing snow. There is only a few inches of snow on the ground at the trailheads and in the lower elevations.


Forest Service volunteer Chris Jacobson tops out at North Creek Pass. Pretty low snow up there.


On the backside near Robinson Pasture. Snow here was even thin on the road so we turned around.

Wind, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Camp Jackson.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

There isn't currently enough snow to pose much of an avalanche danger, but of note is the current snow pack structure. The weak shallow now is already deteriorating, and this doesn't bode well for future snow loads.


Chris Jacobson digs out weak, faceted grains, or "sugar snow" out from the bottom of the existing shallow snow pack. This makes an unstable base for future snow loads.

weather

Today

Snow showers likely, mainly after noon. Patchy blowing snow between 10am and 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 22. Blustery, with a west southwest wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow showers likely, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 13. Blustery, with a west northwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Tuesday

A 20 percent chance of snow before 11am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 20. Blustery, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 12. North northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 23. Northwest wind around 10 mph.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 16.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 22.

Thursday Night

A slight chance of snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around 14.

Friday

A chance of snow, mainly before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21.