Observation: Skyline

Observation Date
1/3/2026
Observer Name
Brett Kobernik
Region
Skyline
Location Name or Route
Skyline Summit/Miller Flat zone
Weather
Sky
Overcast
Wind Direction
South
Wind Speed
Light
Weather Comments
Friday during the tail end of the storm was a complete mess with very warm temps, damp manky snow and rain/rime/sleet. Saturday was just overcast but still fairly warm in the low and mid elevations
Snow Characteristics
New Snow Depth
3"
New Snow Density
High
Snow Surface Conditions
Dense Loose
Wind Crust
Snow Characteristics Comments

The 5 to 6 inches of snow that fell on Friday has settled down to around 3 to 4". I found a mostly supportable heat/rain/rime crust in the mid elevations. I did not find a crust up above about 9500'. The snow in the higher terrain was very dense. The snow in both mid and upper elevations was very supportable to skis and snowmachines. Step off your skis or sled and it's boot penetration to the ground in many areas.

Red Flags
Red Flags
Collapsing
Poor Snowpack Structure
Red Flags Comments
Facets near the ground is a concern, especially with future new snow layers. I experienced a fairly large collapse with damp facets near the ground being the weak layer.
Avalanche Problem #1
Problem
Persistent Weak Layer
Trend
Same
Problem #1 Comments

I wouldn't exactly call this a problem yet, but things don't look great, especially on high northerly facing terrain.

Snow Profile
Aspect
Northeast
Elevation
10,000'
Slope Angle
28°
Comments

Unfortunately, I continue to find more and more areas with loose facets near the ground, especially in the higher terrain. Looking at the snow profile above, you can see the hand-hardness is fist+ on the basal layers near the ground. This layer is all facets. You can also easily pick out two stout melt freeze/rain crusts. These crusts add quite a bit of strength to the current structure. The overall stability is dependent on the strength of these crusts. The question is, are the crusts strong enough to support future new snow layers plus the weight of skiers or snowmobilers? Time will tell but I don't like the set up. One should never trust a snowpack that has a layer of fist hand-hardness facets buried within it.

The video below was from Big Meadow, 10,000', NE facing in lower Lake Fork, easily visible from the Miller Flat parking lot. I found loose facets like this in north facing upper elevation terrain in Pleasant Creek earlier this week. I know this stuff exists on NW, N and NE facing slopes. West and east facing terrain needs more analyzing to figure out the distribution of these buried facets. In other words, do they exist there or not? Southerly facing slopes are not much of a concern in this regard.

Video

The photo below is at the location where I experienced a sizeable collapse with the weak layer being damp facets. 9400', N facing. The slope above me is not steep enough to avalanche.

Today's Observed Danger Rating
Moderate
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
Moderate