At what point does the hazard drop to moderate... Not anytime soon, especially with continued collapsing days after a storm. Human triggered avalanches are LIKELY. Does is really matter whether it goes to moderate or stays at considerable? The seasoned professionals tell me it doesn't.. The avalanche problem remains the same. Avoidance is key with the PWL.

As the storm approaches and we begin to stress our PWL, I am mostly concerned of areas where we have been seeing avalanches. The first place that comes to mind is the PC ridgeline. The second is mid-elevations in the upper cottonwoods. From what I have seen they have very similar structure, because they both had the same height of snow (HS) before our big December storms. What really raises my attention is folks are trying to get more and more away from people when BC skiing, which is warranted. That's what I do. The problem is that pushes parties into outlying areas of the upper cottonwoods where the danger is much more pronounced with a shallow more fragile snowpack. The upper cottonwoods have a very poor structure as well, but more parties will GET AWAY with poor decisions because the snowpack is a bit deeper. The consequences of these types of avalanches are not to be taken lightly. Let's all slow our roll, let the snowpack do its thing, and wait until later in the season to tackle the steeper W-N-E facing avalanche terrain.