Observation Date
2/7/2021
Observer Name
Nauman, Quinn
Region
Moab
Location Name or Route
Goldminer's Cabin
Weather
Sky
Few
Wind Direction
West
Wind Speed
Moderate
Weather Comments
Sunny day with mostly manageable winds. There was still some periods where snow was moving on the ridgelines, but not a lot.
Snow Characteristics
Snow Surface Conditions
Powder
Dense Loose
Wind Crust
Snow Characteristics Comments
The snow was quite variable on our travels today. The mid elevations have held up well and the snow surface is still pretty soft and fun to ski. Up high the wind has done its usual work creating highly variable conditions with hard wind buff and many wind slabs of different size and features.
Red Flags
Red Flags
Recent Avalanches
Wind Loading
Poor Snowpack Structure
Red Flags Comments
There was just enough wind to be aware of the wind loading up high today. It did appear that a couple of small wind slabs broke off on Tuk recently, but other than that we had no collapses or whoomphs today. Things seem to have settled out a little. However, pole pokes revealed weak layers prettimuch everywhere we went, and the south face we evaluated up high had multiple layers of facets at depth that made it hard to even clean up the pit face. Although we had an ECT test fail on isolation at about 30cm below the surface (57 cm total depth), it failed beneath two strong crust layers which make interpretation of the result difficult. The snow on south faces near timberline was also highly variable and a pit 20' away from our main observation did not produce an failure in an ECT. We also noticed that the small recent storm layer (top ~9cm) is not well bonded to the prior snow and popped out very easily. We did not see any sign of surface hoar or actual weak layer, but this may be a sneaky interface with the next storm. Overall, the snowpack does not inspire confidence, even on south faces. The snow is also very thin on south faces, lots of rock sharks to watch out for.
Avalanche Problem #1
Problem
Persistent Weak Layer
Trend
Same
Problem #1 Comments
There are facets on most aspects that have held snow since December. We found them to have the potential to be reactive on south faces today in stability tests, but there are a number of freeze thaw layers above the reactive facets that may keep this layer from truly propagating from a skier weight. However, this is still a risky bet.
Avalanche Problem #2
Problem
Wind Drifted Snow
Trend
Decreasing Danger
Problem #2 Comments
There are still freshly wind loaded areas out there that would probably slide as evidence by some smaller slides on Tuk and many wind patterns in the snow. If one of these did fail, it is also highly likely that it would step down to underlying weak layers.
Snow Profile
Aspect
South
Elevation
11,500'
Slope Angle
23°
Comments
Beautiful day in the alpine. Got eyes on some remnants of old slides in Talking Mtn I hadn't seen before
Hard to even clean up the pit face due to the weak faceted layers.
Moving the pit uphill you can see an overall shallower snow depth and the basal facet layer almost disappears and the crusts are more easily visible. The faceted layer from 7-15cm (from ground) is a consistent layer that failed in two of our tests. However, a pit 20' away didn't react at all in 2 ECT tests. The snow is quite variable on south faces near timberline.
Today's Observed Danger Rating
Considerable
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
Considerable
Coordinates
