Observation: Yellow Jacket

Observation Date
2/5/2021
Observer Name
T Diegel, P Diegel
Region
Salt Lake » Mill Creek Canyon » Yellow Jacket
Location Name or Route
Mill Creek - Yellow Jacket and Alexander
Red Flags
Red Flags
Heavy Snowfall
Wind Loading
Avalanche Problem #1
Problem
New Snow
Trend
Increasing Danger
Problem #1 Comments
Apparently we have been focusing our prayers on More Snow and not enough on Less Wind! As anticipated, 8+ inches of snow fell today, and the winds were cranking out of the west/NW, so much so that we were losing our skin track each run despite it being somewhat sheltered in Yellow Jacket. The snow that came in seemed pretty light - as was the snow that fell earlier in the week - so there was plenty to blow around. The ridge above was blown hard, and the leeward Toots and other Alexander Chutes on up to Depth Hoar bowl were getting lots of loading, and slabs were developing on/just off the ridge.
We were able to do one skin on a bit of a southerly aspect and it seemed like the new snow was bonding fairly well to the earlier-in-the-week sun crust, but with so much wind loading (especially on the many ridges around that are so much higher and more exposed) I would not trust that, so at least temporarily our safe(r) refuge of south facing will be skitchy as well with lots of top and cross wind loading; ie 8" of new could easily result in 2-3 feet on the south/east lee aspects.
On the non-sunny aspects it seemed that there was an early-storm layer that the rest of the storm snow wanted to slide off of. I have no doubt that we coulda triggered a good, big slide today had we tried to. And the winds were so blustery that they seemed to be swirling around the drainage.
Additionally, it's important to note that slides that have happened in the past while - Gobbler's, Bowman, Square Top, Birthdays, Monitors (of course) etc that went to the ground are now getting a quick reload onto a slick and chunky bed surface.
Avalanche Problem #2
Problem
Persistent Weak Layer
Trend
Increasing Danger
Problem #2 Comments
I don't need to remind anyone about the well-advertised PWLs, but with this new load the potential for a big step-down event seems to loom large on W/N/NE aspects.
Today's Observed Danger Rating
High
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
High