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Observation: Mineral Fork

Observation Date
12/9/2019
Observer Name
T Diegel
Region
Salt Lake » Big Cottonwood Canyon » Mineral Fork
Location Name or Route
Mineral BCC
Weather
Sky
Broken
Weather Comments
very calm. No showers, tho expected from the forecast.
Snow Characteristics
New Snow Depth
8"
New Snow Density
High
Snow Surface Conditions
Powder
Snow Characteristics Comments
The snow density changed a bit from our exit yesterday afternoon; it seemed like some graupel fell last night, making the surface a bit more dense and thus it wasn't skiing as deep.
Red Flags
Red Flags Comments
The red flags we had have been reports of avalanches still occurring 10 days after The Big Storm. It didn't seem to us that yesterday's small load had much of an effect. We didn't see any old or new natural avalanches in lower Mineral Fork, though there could have been up higher in the drainage on the north-facing aspects that we couldn't see (a fair bit of fog/low clouds).
Avalanche Problem #1
Problem
Persistent Weak Layer
Trend
Decreasing Danger
Problem #1 Comments
As we approached the ridge in lower mineral where we had to decide whether or not to press on the last few feet to the top we did a quick pole handle-push "test" and got pretty consistent pressure (ie a pretty uniform slab) until it plunged into the facet abyss at the bottom. We quickly scampered down into the trees.
Avalanche Problem #2
Problem
New Snow
Trend
Decreasing Danger
Problem #2 Comments
Later at a different spot upcanyon at the same elevation I dug a proper pit (tho mine are never that great) and was able to get the top foot to slide off with a good shear at about 15 taps. So a moderate release. IF - and that's a big if - that one did happen to release, I would think the odds of a step-down to the facets at the ground would be quite high.
Snow Profile
Aspect
North
Elevation
9,000'
Slope Angle
22°
Video
It seems too me that there are still plenty of places where a bad avalanche could be triggered. So if you happened to hit one of those places, then an avalanche is likely, which makes the danger "considerable." And lots of avalanche-prone slopes did NOT natural in the cycle, so they are hanging out, waiting for the trigger.
When will there be enough snow above that facetfest at the ground that the additional weight of a skier doesn't trigger it?
At the moment the snow surface is nice and fast so low angle is still really fun, and with the sun crust not too deep on southern aspects you kinda need low angle anyway to not dig down to the scratchy surface.
Today's Observed Danger Rating
Considerable
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
Considerable
Coordinates