Observation Date
1/23/2019
Observer Name
Peter Donner
Region
Salt Lake » Big Cottonwood Canyon » Mill Creek Canyon » Mill A » Butler Fork » Gobblers
Location Name or Route
Gobblers Knob to Raymond Glade
Comments
I've toured the last 8 days in Mill Creek and my sense is we are transitioning to an old style mid-winter Wasatch snowpack: deep, strong stable. But, we are not there yet. The 1 column I isolated failed on the Jan 15 surface layer, which is about 2 feet down now. The pre-Christmas weak layer I was concerned about going into last week's storm cycle is now about 4 feet down and difficult to identify without a major excavation of snow. Likewise the persistent weak layer from the October snow is now 5 feet down and seems to be so compacted that slopes will no longer fail on it.
To complicate matters for tomorrow, there was a brief rime event that iced my sunglasses and poles around 1:30 pm. Snow in north-facing wind sheltered Mill Creek was thinly rimed while snow in south facing Mill A Basin had a skiable but thick rime crust. If ridgetop winds continue to gust 40 mph and 10 inches of snow falls, there will be deep wind drifts on top of the rime that should fail easily in steeper terrain.
Confirming the considerable hazard on Wednesday, I put in 30 kick-turns ascending the 400 feet from Baker Pass to Raymond Shoulder. This is a climb I often do with 3 or 4 switch-backs in low hazard. To say I had 1 foot in Millcreek and 1 foot in Big Cottonwood at all times is not much of an exaggeration. I did not want to get underneath steep wind drifted snow. The snow I climbed was mostly loose on top of dirt or pencil/knife hard slab plastered onto the ground.
If snow totals are near forecast, the hazard tomorrow will be considerable in steep wind effected terrain.
Today's Observed Danger Rating
Considerable
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
Considerable