Observation: Cedar Creek

Observation Date
1/4/2019
Observer Name
Kobernik - Kendall
Region
Skyline » Cedar Creek
Location Name or Route
Cedar Creek
Comments
I've been keeping an eye on a layer of "near surface facets" that formed in mid December and is now buried. In simple terms, the surface snow turned into sugary grains during the mid Dec dry spell. The concern is that this layer could act as a "Persistent Weak Layer" as more storms add more snow onto the top of the snowpack.
When this layer was forming, I didn't get too alarmed. Sure, the sugar snow was forming which is always worrisome but once the dry spell was over and the stuff was buried, I didn't think it was a huge concern. The sugar grains are small and not all that loose.
Most of the locations where I've looked at this buried weak layer, I haven't been able to get it to fail in snowpit tests. However, on Thursday, Jan 3, 2019 my partner and I experienced a small collapse of the snowpack. We dug down and found this layer to be the culprit under a wind crust. Snowpit tests failed and propagated. OBSERVATION HERE.
There have been a handful of "pockets" triggered by snowmobilers over the last week. I haven't been able to look at any yet up close but I'm betting the mid Dec weak layer is what they failed on.
Today my partner and I took a hard look at this layer. We were easily able to identify it in the snowpit walls. It is certainly more loose than the snow above and below it. However, today we could not get it to fail during tests.
Video
So, currently I think that this layer needs monitoring through the next couple of storms. I think there is a chance that it will produce some avalanche activity. My hunch is that it won't be an issue that is super widespread or long lasting. Stay tuned in for how this plays out.
Today's Observed Danger Rating
Moderate
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
Moderate