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Observation: Meadows

Observation Date
1/8/2017
Observer Name
T Diegel
Region
Salt Lake » Big Cottonwood Canyon » Silver Fork » Meadows
Location Name or Route
Silver Fork Meadows
Weather
Sky
Obscured
Precipitation
Light Snowfall
Wind Direction
West
Wind Speed
Strong
Weather Comments
winds and precip didn't really pick up until 1 or 2pm and the wind seemed variable; at times blowing hard from the west, but other times coming in from the east. Curling up and over? Also, the well advertised warm front came in over the course of the day.
Snow Characteristics
New Snow Depth
3"
New Snow Density
High
Snow Surface Conditions
Powder
Damp
Snow Characteristics Comments

First thing in the morning both the old snow and the new snow were nice and powdery and it wasn't much different from yesterday, but over the course of the day got heavier, to the point where we were seeing rollerballs at ~9000' and at 8500 the skis were sticking. Above 9k it was still fine riding.

Red Flags
Red Flags
Wind Loading
Rapid Warming
Red Flags Comments
The day started out the same as yesterday, but the rapid warming and increasing winds started to change the snow surface, so we became more wary throughout the day. As a wise old avalanche sage noted: "Yesterday's blower powder is tomorrow's slab"
Avalanche Problem #1
Problem
New Snow
Trend
Increasing Danger
Problem #1 Comments

Higher, steeper, and more wind-loaded slopes would have made us really nervous later in the day. We were happy to be in a more-sheltered area.

Avalanche Problem #2
Problem
Persistent Weak Layer
Trend
Increasing Danger
Problem #2 Comments

On quick hand pits we were getting nice clean shears about 14-16" down to come out with a fair bit of effort. There was some of discussion about water weight: does increased temps that makes the snow feel heavier actually increase the actual weight? (we think not, and there was only about 3" of new). Regardless of that point, with a fair bit more loading it may be possible to create enough pressure to generate that "fair bit of effort" on those layers that will soon be more like 2.5+ feet deep, creating the potential for big avalanches. But maybe not? Hard sayin' at this point. Could be that the new storm comes in as a slab and any new snow slab avies could generate enough pressure to step down? Again, at this point hard sayin'. But this big change from a couple of days ago and more big changes in the forecast makes us wary.

Today's Observed Danger Rating
Moderate
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
Considerable