Observation Date
1/16/2015
Observer Name
Hardesty, Konigsberg, and Wilson
Region
Salt Lake » Mill Creek Canyon » Upper Mill Creek
Location Name or Route
Upper Mill Creek
Weather
Sky
Overcast
Wind Direction
West
Wind Speed
Moderate
Weather Comments
Patches of blue to gunmetal. Increasing westerly winds with fair transport. Shallow soft slabs forming.
Snow Characteristics
Snow Surface Conditions
Powder
Wind Crust
Melt-Freeze Crust
Snow Characteristics Comments

Some SH noted in low elevations; perhaps some diurnal squares in the shady terrain.

Red Flags
Red Flags
Wind Loading
Poor Snowpack Structure
Red Flags Comments
Wind loading as noted above. Surface crusts on the southerly aspects inhibiting direct transfer, but plenty of soft snow transported through natural terrain channelling. Somewhat poor structure in the Upper MCC/PC Ridge -see video below
Avalanche Problem #1
Problem
Persistent Weak Layer
Trend
Same
Problem #1 Comments

Should be soft in nature and manageable concerns; cornice buildup a factor as well.

Snow Profile
Aspect
North
Elevation
9,600'
Slope Angle
30°
Comments

PST (Propagation Saw Tests) tend to have a higher "false stable" ratio than ECTs (Extended Column Tests) but may be preferable when one has a deeper weakness of concern.

Eric Knoff (retired Snowbird) and current Gallatin NF Avalanche Center forecaster wrote a paper on horizontal pit-wall PSTs and published it at this fall's ISSW. His data indicate that CPSTs share similar critical cut lengths as standard PSTs, with 75% of critical cut lengths falling within 10 cm of each other. Something to consider as they're much more efficient to conduct, especially in a standard ECT pit wall.

As you'll see in the side-by-each video, fairly weak facets nearly 80 cm down preserved from mid-Dec 17/18 demonstrate difficult to initiate but good propagation. Poor structure? Sorta. A current avalanche problem? Not at the top of the list. Possible in very thin, shallow snowpack areas (Lambs, Aire, etc) with new loading. Another factor would be the type of trigger - "may be reactive to heavy loads - large cornice fall, multiple machines on the slope, step down avalanche."

Video

Pockets of Moderate for windslab today; perhaps more widespread Moderate tomorrow.

Today's Observed Danger Rating
Moderate
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
Moderate
Coordinates