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Observation: Days Fork

Observation Date
1/12/2015
Observer Name
Aaron Rice
Region
Salt Lake » Big Cottonwood Canyon » Days Fork
Location Name or Route
Days Fork
Weather
Sky
Obscured
Precipitation
Heavy Snowfall
Wind Direction
West
Wind Speed
Light
Weather Comments
Very heavy precipitation rates (3+in/hr) from about 9am - 11am. Not much wind except for on ridges.
Snow Characteristics
New Snow Depth
14"
New Snow Density
Low
Snow Surface Conditions
Powder
Snow Characteristics Comments
The snow made for very good ridging conditions. On northern aspects (ie hideaway park, and main days) between yesterdays 3+inches and today's snow you could not feel the old surface. On south aspects (ie emmas) it was a bit bottom feedy. There was a bit of a density inversion noted as well. Skies would submarine in the now snow and not come back up. On lower angle (<20deg) slopes it made skiing a bit difficult and made for some slogging back to the road.
Red Flags
Red Flags
Recent Avalanches
Heavy Snowfall
Cracking
Red Flags Comments
It seemed there was a bit of a natural cycle during the peak precip rates around 10 or 11. While skiing Main days, many natural small to medium, long running sluffs were observed. Snow fall rates hit and likely surpassed 3 inches per hour at times. It is hard to not quickly see the effects of snowfall like that. On all slopes (especially during high precip rates) cracking was easily observed on each turn. On slopes greater than 35deg (somewhat of an estimate) the cracking would continue and sluffing would begin.
Avalanche Problem #1
Problem
New Snow
Trend
Decreasing Danger
Problem #1 Comments
The main concern out there today was now snow instability. This was especially pronounced at peak precip rates. I stared my tour up flagstaff (10am). I diligently stuck to the ridge on the way up to avoid traveling on to the open slope to the east that the skinner often crosses. As I got to the top of false Flagstaff (11am). I hair triggered, from the ridge, a new snow avalanche on the days fork headwall that propagated about 100ft wide and ran until the slope mellowed out to about 20deg, ~400' vertical. We skied main days next (12pm) and kept our slope angle below 35 degrees. Even doing this we were continually triggering small to medium sized sluff, some propagating 15-30ft. As the day went on the sluffing mellowed out greatly. Our next run was in hideaway park (1:30pm) and much less cracking was observed. Sluffing was still a concern but there was little to no propagation anymore. For our last run we skied out the emmas (2:30pm) an observed minor sluffing and no propagation. I included the times to give a sense of how the danger increased with the increased pecip rates and then dropped off as the precip rate dropped back to 1in/hr. While the snow was very touchy out there today, it was very manageable with frequent slope cutting and avoiding exposed terrain and other terrain traps. I keep thinking of this danger as high probability low(er) consequence. As long as you use good protocol, travel with a partner, and expect the snow to move a bit, there is some great, safe, powder skiing to be had
Today's Observed Danger Rating
Considerable
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
Moderate
Coordinates