No avalanche problems today with the exception of some shallow, soft sluffs on the very steep slopes. But I went out to look at the snow surface before the big storm comes in this weekend. The weakest snow is on the surface with about 6 inches of very loose, near-surface faceted snow topped with a skiff of new snow. Interestingly enough at elevations around 10,000' there was lots of surface hoar coating the snow surface and trees. There must have been some low clouds with their tops around that elevation recently that contributed the ingredients of surface hoar, clear sky, moist air and calm wind. The surface hoar remains even on the ridges so the wind has not yet destroyed it. We won't know yet whether the surface hoar will be a problem until we see how the storm will come in. Hopefully, the warmer temperatures or wind will destroy it. But if not, it adds insult to injury to an already extremely weak snow surface.

The weak snow exists on all the shady aspects and at elevations from the mountain tops all the way down to around 7,000' on the north facing slopes. The south facing slopes are mostly bare at elevations below about 9,000'.

The storm snow should slide easily on the very weak snow surface and in the shallow snowpack areas, the avalanches could easily step down into deeper weak layers. So we have all the ingredients in place for a major avalanche cycle--very weak snow on the surface, a storm with rising temperature, upside down snow, increasing wind and lots of weight. I'm guessing we will have an avalanche warning in effect for Sunday with a High danger.