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Observation: Primrose Cirque

Observation Date
4/9/2014
Observer Name
Joey Dempster
Region
Provo » Provo Canyon » Timpanogos » Primrose Cirque
Location Name or Route
Primrose Cirque - Timpanogos
Weather
Sky
Clear
Wind Direction
West
Wind Speed
Light
Weather Comments
It was warm last night. The refreeze was marginal, and the morning air was quite warm.
Snow Characteristics
Snow Surface Conditions
Dense Loose
Melt-Freeze Crust
Damp
Snow Characteristics Comments
Marginal refreeze has left the mid and upper elevation snowpack in a kind of limbo. And when I say "limbo", I mean mashed potatoes. It's generally supportable for skis, but I was breaking through often enough to feel like I was breaking trail, and ski poles were almost useless, as each plant would dive down 3 feet into the snowpack if fully weighted. This condition was widespread except on the shadiest slopes, which are alternately icy and breakable crust. This was not a great day to ski, especially if one still retains pleasant memories of the last three weeks, as I do. But it was quite stable still. The lack of solid refreeze and the fact that we aren't really into a solid melt-freeze cycle yet made me a little leery, but all of the snow I observed on the way up to the top of Primrose was firmly held in place by friction, even if grain-to-grain bonds were lacking in the upper 8 inches. Below the reach of daytime warming, the snow is solid. I had a chance to go back an look at the wind slabs that turned me back on Monday, and they were all welded into place and had been tested by wet slides from above without moving. So this morning I walked right over them confidently. I would say that the danger from those slabs is well expired in most if not all places in the range. Due to the sloppy nature of the snow, even if I felt ok being on it in the morning, I was glad to be off of it by 10am, as many slopes could be primed for wet sluffing that could really get going this afternoon. Tomorrow's danger rating really depends on the overnight temps. I have selected "considerable", assuming the worst. If it freezes solid down to 8000 feet, then it could very well be "low".
Red Flags
Red Flags
Rapid Warming
Red Flags Comments
There will be avalanches this afternoon. And if it doesn't refreeze at 10,000 again tonight, I wouldn't push it in the morning. Besides, the skiing will be truly awful. Time to go mountain biking or climbing for a few days?
Comments
For purely academic consideration, I got a better look at the crowns in upper Primrose from Monday morning that I couldn't see very well from 10233. They aren't large or deep, but given the nature of the terrain up there, I'm glad I didn't chance it. I think the fact that these slides occurred naturally after very little snow fell is a good lesson about the respect demanded by the upper reaches of Timp. Getting to the top of Primrose seems easy these days with modern gear and technique, but it's a dangerous place with the capacity to generate treacherous conditions even when things seems benign in general.
Today's Observed Danger Rating
Moderate
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
Considerable