Observation: Silver Fork

Observation Date
12/18/2013
Observer Name
Bruce Tremper
Region
Salt Lake » Big Cottonwood Canyon » Silver Fork
Location Name or Route
East Bowl of Silver Fork
Weather
Sky
Overcast
Wind Direction
Southwest
Wind Speed
Moderate
Weather Comments
Increasing clouds through the day in advance of the approaching storm expected for tomorrow.
Snow Characteristics
Snow Surface Conditions
Faceted Loose
Snow Characteristics Comments

Extremely variable snow conditions with no snow on south facing slopes below about 8,000' and quite rocky and shallow on most other slopes. Still some soft, faceted snow on the wind sheltered, mid elevation slopes that face northwest, north, northeast and occasionally east. We really need new snow.

Red Flags
Red Flags
Poor Snowpack Structure
Red Flags Comments
The snow on the shady aspects is faceted snow top to bottom and its strength varies quite a bit from place to place. I can still propagate fractures on stability tests on many slopes but they are stubborn on the slopes I looked at.
Avalanche Problem #1
Problem
New Snow
Trend
Increasing Danger
Problem #1 Comments

When the new snow arrives, I'm guessing it will be quite stable on the southerly facing slopes because they either have no snow whatsoever or a thin layer of wet or refrozen snow. The main problem will be the faceted snow that has completely rotted on all the shady aspects--northwest, north, northeast and east facing slopes at most all elevations. The weakest snow exists on the wind sheltered, mid elevation shady slopes. The upper elevations have quite a bit of wind damage so they may actually be safer than the ones out of the wind. We will have extremely variable avalanche conditions once we get some weight on top. The storm could come in with high freezing levels so things could get interesting. Hard to say what effect that will have on avalanche conditions. It may make the snowpack more unstable in the short term but more stable in the long term. We will need to keep a close eye on the amount of weight added and if there will be any wind transport to add additional weight from wind deposited snow.

Avalanche Problem #2
Problem
New Snow
Trend
Increasing Danger
Problem #2 Comments

When the storm arrives, we will have to watch carefully how the new snow is bonded to the underlying snow and various density changes as it accumulates. In many places, the faceted snow near the surface is extremely weak, so that will be the most likely sliding layer. But if the storm comes in warm, especially with rain at the beginning of the storm, it could stabilize the surface faceted layers and surface hoar. We will have to watch it carefully as it comes in. Expect very tricky conditions because of both the extreme spatial variability of the pre-existing snowpack and the uncertainties of this storm.

Comments

Here is a 2 minute video on the present snowpack conditions on upper elevation, north facing slopes and some guesses on what to expect as the snow adds weight on top of these layers. Note that my comments are for the place where we dug these snow profiles--around 10,000' on north facing slopes in Silver Fork, and the snowpack varies dramatically from one place to another. I would expect the mid elevation, wind and sun sheltered slopes would be weaker than what we were finding. So as usual, take what I say with caution because there's so much spatial variability in the pre-existing snow and so much uncertainty with the coming storm.

Video
Today's Observed Danger Rating
Moderate
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
Considerable