Using colored water, we wanted to understand potential wet slab failure planes and depths as temperatures continue to rise. Within the top 3 feet of the snowpack, there are multiple locations where water was pooling. The most concerning location is on top of a firmer layer directly above the Dry January Layer of facets.
The warm temperatures and amount of water that is likely to be moving through the snowpack over the next 2-3 days may lead to avalanches failing as Wet Slabs. There is significant uncertainty about avalanche conditions over the coming days.
Wet Slabs often occur during intense or prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs are generally more destructive and more difficult to manage than Wet Loose avalanches; they can break widely and without clear warning signs. Because the timing and amount of meltwater draining into buried weak layers vary significantly from slope to slope, there is a high amount of variability and uncertainty in predicting Wet Slabs. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty. If the snowpack has refrozen overnight, you can reduce your risk by traveling early in the day or on colder slopes where surface crusts are strong and supportive to your weight. Otherwise, conservative terrain selection is prudent during significant warm-ups, especially when a poor snow structure or buried persistent weak layer first transitions from dry to very wet. The timing of this transition often varies by aspect or elevation.
