Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Thursday morning, March 6, 2025

A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on many slopes of the mid and upper elevations. Human triggered avalanches are likely; natural avalanches are possible, particularly during periods of heavy snowfall. Some avalanches on the north side of the compass may step down into older weak layers, resulting in more dangerous avalanches. We may reach HIGH danger this evening or overnight.

Thought experiment: At the top of a steep slope today, peer down the blanket of white and tell yourself, It's likely I will trigger an avalanche here. What then?

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

We're in the thick of it. It snowed much of the night, with snow amounts up to 8-12" (1.3" SWE) as of 6am. As we're still in the warm sector of the storm, temperatures have remained steady or have slightly risen with the snowfall and are in the upper-20s. Winds, originally out of the south-southeast, have veered slightly to the south and southwest. Hourly wind speeds are 20-25mph with gusts to 30mph.

For today, we'll see continued snowfall out of the southwest that may add up to another 6-12". Snowfall may become a bit showery by afternoon but kick back in as the flow shifts to the northwest, accompanied by colder temperatures and lower density snow. Winds today will be 15-20mph out of the southwest with mountain temps in the mid to upper 20s. We may see another 4-8" overnight and through close of business Friday. Clearing for the weekend with a somewhat active pattern for next week.

Recent Avalanches

None.

Observations and Avalanches

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

These hourly wind speeds of 20-25mph should be perfect for developing soft wind slabs just to the lee of ridgelines and other terrain features. They'll be most prominent on northerly facing slopes and cross-loaded on others. Ski cuts and cornice drops are effective mitigation strategies with these soft slabs...but remember these strategies are inherently dangerous. New cornices will also crack out on approach.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

New snow instabilities can be elevated whenever you see temperatures rising during the storm as we see today. I would expect to see new soft slabs easily triggered within the new snow at various interfaces. Test slopes are excellent primers for this. Remember that avalanche instability spikes during periods of heavy snowfall: back off steep terrain when this occurs. Natural avalanches are also likely during periods of heavy snowfall.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

With enough added stress (ie - enough snow and wind plus you as the trigger), avalanches may fail or step down to a layer of old faceted snow or depth hoar as a yet-again repeater avalanche. These repeaters are generally limited to some west to north to southeast facing slopes with a bulls-eye on north to northeast facing.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

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