Forecast: Salt Lake Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Thursday morning, February 27, 2025

A MODERATE danger exists on many west to north to southeast facing slopes for triggering a slab avalanche 2-4 feet thick failing on a persistent weak layer. Cracking and collapsing are not likely to be present as sure giveaways to instability. Wet avalanches on the solar aspects will be increasingly likely with direct sun and rapidly warming temperatures. I also anticipate increasingly tender cornices along the ridgelines and increased glide activity in the usual terrain of Broads Fork, Stairs Gulch and Mill B south of BCC.

Remember that terrain is your friend: If snow structure is the question, terrain is the answer. Plenty of safe and worry-free slopes to ride on low angle terrain.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

Skies are clear with temperature inversions firmly in place. Ridgetop temperatures are well into the upper 20s to low 30s while basins and trailheads are in the single digits to low teens. Winds are light from the northeast.

High pressure will dominate the weather pattern over the weekend while a lost and wayward storm wobbles about well to the south. Take heart, though, as in all things, there is hope on the horizon: a series of storms are set to impact the region on Monday.

If you play your cards right, you'll find windows of supportable semi-corn today on east, then south, then westerly aspects today. Polar aspects are wind damaged up high with a temperature crust from Sunday's greenhousing down low. The mid-elevations may offer the most consistent soft settled snow. It'll be a beautiful sunny day today with light winds from the northwest. Mountain temperatures will soar into the upper 30s up high, the mid to upper 40s down low.

Recent Avalanches

No reports of avalanche activity from the backcountry yesterday. Catch up on recent observations below.

Observations and Avalanches

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Complex and variable are the words to key in on.

In my tenure, this winter's snowpack structure is one of the most complex and variable I can remember. We have various persistent weak layers within the snowpack that are becoming dormant (the most recent reported avalanche was on the 22nd), but they're not there yet. Areas that have previously avalanched this season may be particularly prone to avalanching again. UAC staff Jeremy Collett and Joey Manship discuss this exact structure in Butler Fork of BCC HERE; while UAC forecaster Trent Meisenheimer found much more stable snow (with a lot of fine print) further north in the Bountiful/Sessions area HERE. Aspects most prone to avalanching include west to north to southeast facing aspects of all elevations but generally the mid and upper elevations.

More thoughts under Additional Information below -

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

This morning's temperatures are radically warmer than yesterday. With direct sun and continued warmth, you'll be able to trigger wet avalanches on steep sunlit terrain today. In continuously steep terrain or terrain with an abrupt transition or gulley, this wet snow will be enough to bury you. It'll also be enough to knock you off your feet in the no-fall-zone.

When you're seeing rollerballs and point release sluffs and the snow begins to feel punchy and unsupportable, head to cooler aspects or low angle terrain.

Additional Information

Forecaster's Corner:

We are meaning-making machines. Always have been. We try to detect patterns to to reason our way through our next decisions. And it works pretty well when X equals Y but with our current snowpack, X might be Z. Take Jeremy's snow structure in Butler Fork. This slope avalanched not that long ago. But if you dig a pit further down the ridgeline where the snowpack has been intact all winter, it's a completely different animal. Same for Trent's snow structure. He found stable snow, but mentions that right around the corner in the higher elevations, there was a very close call with a significant avalanche just a few days ago.

Bottom Line - there is a LOT of spatial variability in the snowpack. It's great to dig a snowpit, but don't make broad generalizations about what you find.

Supplementary Reading on decision making for this nice sunny weekend:

A Failure to Disagree - Daniel Kahneman and Gary Klein .... (on the use of intuition and reason for decision making)

Descartes' Error - Antonio Damasio ...(or anything else by him - on the use of emotion to support decision making)

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

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