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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, January 31, 2025
The overall danger is LOW and generally stable snow conditions exist. Small avalanches involving recent deposits of wind drifted snow are possible on isolated terrain features.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Special Announcements
Check out the latest edition of the UAC podcast with Moab forecaster Dave Garcia where he talks about the challenges of forecasting for our remote and isolated range with limited information.
Urgent battery replacement required for anyone who received batteries from one of our participating "Batteries for Beacons" shops. Please review the "Batteries for Beacons" replacement notice on our blog. Batteries distributed through our "Batteries for Beacons" program this year have shown to be inadequate length.
Geyser Pass Road: Surface is mainly snowpacked and icy above and bare dirt down low. AWD with good tires recommended.
Grooming Conditions: Gavin and Sam Van Wetter teamed up and groomed all trails on Wednesday. Mark Sevenoff sampled conditions up to Geyser Pass yesterday and said they were great. Thanks guys!
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 63" Depth at Gold Basin: 29"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 5-10 Temp: 18° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 72%
Weather
After a pretty good run, northerly winds began decreasing yesterday afternoon and are currently mostly light. Today will be dry and mild with high temperatures in the upper 30's. A warm and moist atmospheric river (AR) is poised to impact northern Utah and Colorado this weekend. As has been typical of the pattern this season, we're going to miss out on the action but we will see some clouds and more importantly, very warm temperatures by Sunday. Down the pipe, a stronger AR could push further south later next week. It's a long way out but one can only hope.
General Conditions
Northerly winds have been whipping around loose surface snow near treeline and our local snowcat driver extraordinaire, Gavin Harrison, reported some isolated sensitive drifts on easterly aspects yesterday. Ryan Huels reported similar activity the day before. Check out his observation here. I don't think fresh drifts will be too problematic, but pay attention to areas that show signs of recent wind loading. Look for smooth, rounded pillows on the leeward sides of terrain features. Cracking is a sign of instability. Above treeline the surface is very hard and wind blasted or scoured down to the rocks.
The overall snowpack is weak in many places, especially on shady slopes below treeline where small, loose dry avalanches are possible on very steep slopes. This weak snow is forming a tenuous base, and it won't take much new snow for us to start seeing avalanches.
This photo by Ryan Huels illustrates why any problems you might find are near treeline rather than above where slopes are scoured or wind hardened.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The avalanche danger is low and conditions are generally stable. Here are a few things to keep in mind as you travel through the backcountry today.
  • Persistent Weak Layer - Our snowpack is generally weak and faceted in many areas. This is different than your typical late-season low danger. If you are getting into big lines and steep terrain, it is always wise to evaluate the snowpack first. Look for slabs over weak layers. Reduce your risk by avoiding likely trigger points like shallow rocky areas, steep convexities, and thin slab margins.
  • Wind Drifted Snow - The La Sals are a high, islolated, wind swept mountain range and snow is often transported and then deposited as slabs of wind drifted snow. The current threat is isolated to specific terrain features and avalanches will be small, but they could sweep you off your feet and carry you over a cliff in the wrong location. Remain cautious of smooth, rounded, hollow feeling, areas, especially when in consequential terrain.
  • Loose Dry Avalanches - Below treeline on northerly aspects, the snowpack is entirely loose and faceted. You can trigger small dry-loose avalanches in very steep terrain. These slides would not be large enough to bury you, but they could sweep you off your feet and carry you into a tree or over a cliff.
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.