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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Dave Kelly
Issued by Dave Kelly on
Sunday morning, December 1, 2024
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on slopes facing northwest through north and east at the mid and upper elevations where it may be possible to trigger an avalanche up to 2' deep and 80' wide failing on a persistent weak layer (PWL) of faceted snow. The avalanche danger is LOW on all other aspects and elevations. You may see isolated wet loose avalanches on southerly facing slopes with daytime heating.
I will be avoiding any slope over 30° in steepness if the facets are present in the snowpack.
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Special Announcements
The 17th Annual Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop (USAW) is scheduled for Saturday December 7th - Information and tickets available here.
If you trigger or see an avalanche adjacent to the road or one of the ski areas and are sure no one was caught in the avalanche, call the nearest mountain dispatch and alert them to the situation, this will allow SAR teams to stand down, preventing them from being subjected to unnecessary hazard.
  • Sundance Dispatch- (801-223-4150)
Quick refresher on Backcountry Emergencies and Avalanche Response HERE. You may just save a life
Weather and Snow
Under clear skies, mountain temperatures are in the low 30's°F. Winds are calm at the 9,000' ridgelines and blowing from the west-southwest in the teen's gusting to the 20's MPH at the highest ridgelines. Check out the new weather station on Cascade Peak at 10,875'
Today, skies will be mostly clear. Temperatures will be 38-45°F and winds will blow from a northerly direction 5 gusting to 10 MPH at the 9,000 ridgelines and from the west 15 gusting to 20 MPH at the 11,000' ridgelines. The forecast looks promising for continued weakening of the snow surface on northerly facing aspects over the next week, and an inversion continues to build.
The snow surface is like a box of Cracker Jacks and you don't want to find the surprise. North facing slopes are starting to facet from the top-to-the-bottom and there are rocks and wildflowers poking through our thin snowpack in many locations. You'll find melt freeze crust on the southerly aspects in the morning that will warm up in the sun and could have the potential to turn into wet loose avalanches this afternoon. ​​​​​​ These wet loose avalanches can be avoided by staying off of sun warmed slopes.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday, we had reports of natural wet loose avalanches in the Provo mountains. The photo (Woody UDOT) below was on a southeast aspect in the Lost Creek drainage of Provo Canyon. Earlier in the week there was a widespread natural avalanche cycle in the Provo Area Mountains that involved the buried facets. Check out all observations and avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Carefully assess where these buried facets may be before ascending or descending a slope greater than 30° in steepness. If you choose to venture onto slopes where this persistent weak layer (PWL) may exist, dig down and look for the structure of strong (stiffer/firmer) snow on top of weak (softer/looser) snow. If you see this structure, it may be possible to trigger an avalanche up to 2' deep and over 80' wide. As our snowpack adjusts to the most recent snow; the in-your-face nature of this problem such as cracking, collapsing, and recent avalanches will be harder to see. Any slope that has previous or current wind loading is more suspect and I would avoid these slopes.
Video of propagation with cutting (ECTPV) failing on the facets under a crust near the ground on a northeast aspect at 9,300 (video Grainger). This is similar to what you may find in the Provo Area Mountains.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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