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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, January 20, 2024
A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger remains on steep slopes facing W-N-E. Deep and dangerous human triggered avalanches involving a buried persistent weak layer are likely in these areas.
A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep slopes facing SW-S-SE at all elevations. Human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are possible.
A very weak, and unstable snowpack has developed and this situation is likely to be with us for awhile. Cultivate the mindset that avalanche terrain is off limits and keep your slope angles less than 30 degrees.
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High
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Special Announcements
Our Backcountry 101 class is full! Thanks to Moab Gear Trader for sponsoring this course!
Road Conditions: The Geyser Pass Road is plowed. The surface is snow packed on dirt. AWD with good tires recommended.
Grooming: Ben and John from LUNA groomed Gold Basin through Geyser Pass yesterday and set classic track.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 4" Season Total Snow 81" Base Depth at Gold Basin 36"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: S 20-55 Temp 28˚ F
Weather
A ridge of high pressure will begin to move eastward today as a weak low pressure system moves into the area. Look for increasing clouds today with high temps at 10,000' rising up into the lower 30's. Winds from the SW will blow 10-20 mph along ridge tops. A chance for snow will develop tonight with snow showers likely Sunday into Monday. 3"-5" are possible. We'll remain under the influence of this slow moving low pressure system through mid-week. Mostly cloudy skies and chances for snow showers will hang on through this period.
General Conditions
You can still find soft snow for turning and riding on sheltered, shady aspects. Sunny slopes took on some heat yesterday and will likely be crusted over this morning. Increasing southerly winds early this morning may have formed a few shallow, fresh drifts on upper elevation, northerly aspects, but these will be inconsequential compared to the underlying persistent weak layer problem in these areas. On Thursday, Dave Garcia and I toured up toward the Burro Pass/Mann's Peak area and we continued to experience widespread collapsing of the snowpack. This red flag sign of instability is the result of a person's weight collapsing the slab over a weak layer. The danger is greatest on steep, wind loaded, northerly facing slopes, but the persistent weak layer also exists on southerly aspects. Avoiding slopes steeper than 30 degrees remains the only safe strategy right now.
Conditions can be misleading out there. While many areas above treeline are stripped of snow, a very real avalanche problem exists on any steep slope that has snow. Northerly facing slopes near treeline, where wind drifted snow has accumulated are particularly dangerous. Winter Rescue Team commander Scott Sole observed this natural avalanche on Thursday that probably occurred last weekend.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
This large avalanche in Horse Creek off the Laurel Ridge was remotely triggered by Dave Garcia on Monday. Normally we would consider this old news except for the fact that you can still trigger one like it. This avalanche is about 1,500' wide with an average depth of 4' and a maximum depth of 6.5'. Get the full details here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A slab of cohesive snow now exists above a persistent weak layer of faceted snow on all aspects and elevations. Collapsing and whumphing continue to be widespread. This red flag sign of instability demonstrates how easily the slab fails under a person's weight. On northerly facing slopes, thick hard slabs of wind-drifted snow rest on top of this weak layer, and they are hanging in the balance just waiting for a trigger. Once triggered, these avalanches will break deep and wide, and will be un-survivable. On southerly aspects stabilty tests also demonstrate slab failure with propagation. These avalanches are more stubborn to trigger, and won't be quite as large, but make no mistake, they are not to be trifled with. Avoidance of slopes steeper than 30 degrees is the only safe strategy right now.
The video below illustrates unstable conditions with a slab failing on a weak layer on a SE aspect. An extended column test produced results of ECTP23.
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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