Not an avalanche problem yet, but I want to comment on it, because we all know it's coming as soon as we put a load on top. I spent the day looking for weak snow by aspect, and found plenty of it.
All four pits today have the same thing in common. Very weak near surface facets in the upper pack. This snow was formerly the old snow surface. Since 12/1/23 we have only had two storms. 5" on 12/13, and 9" on 12/23. That is a lot of cold clear nights that have resulted in very weak surface snow on any aspect that holds snow. This will be our primary layer of concern moving forward as the snow starts to pile up Sunday. I don't think it will take very much of a load to produce avalanches on this layer. Fresh soft slabs of wind-drifted snow will be especially sensitive on this weak layer.
West: West facing slopes are quite variable right now. In some cases they are scoured and/or melted down to bare ground. More sheltered West facing slopes near treeline have an actual snowpack, and a weak one at that. Here is a profile from Julie's:
I also dug on a West aspect on the Funnel. This slope is less sheltered and sees more sun and wind. There was less snow here, with an HS of 49 cm. Just like the pit on Julie's, there is a very weak layer of NSF, found here between 42-32cm.
This short video clip illustrates the weak NSF facet layer that is going to become our next PWL. This clip is from the Funnel.
Northwest: Northwest aspects have a weak snowpack and are similar to what we have been finding on due North and East. Here's a profile from the Prelude:
This photo from my pit on the Prelude illustrates the weak faceted snow in the top of the pack that has now been capped by two inches of fluff. This layer is the weakest snow in the pack, and causes me the most concern moving forward into Sunday's storm.
North and East: I dug a quick pit on a NE facing slope on Julie's Backside. No profile from this pit, because we have N and E well documented. Look through past obs to see pits from these aspects. North and East have held the weakest snow all season, and it looks like it will finally be put to the test. Same deal as the other aspects, the weakest snow is found in the upper 20 cms or so of the pack. Basal facets are present in all pits, but are most pronounced and weakeast on N and E aspects.
South: South facing slopes are mostly bare and are not of concern right now.
This photo was taken on 1/1, before the recent 2 inches of snow fell. These are South facing slopes in Miner's Basin
This photo shows bare dirt and rocks on the skier's right of the Funnel that which has some Southern exposure.
