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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia on
Thursday morning, December 21, 2023
Recent snow has not significantly changed the avalanche danger, and there's still not quite enough coverage for off trail riding and sliding. Triggering an avalanche is unlikely, but on upper elevation, northerly aspects, isolated slabs of wind drifted snow overlying weak, sugary, faceted snow may exist. These areas are extremely difficult to access at this time but if a slope looks like it has enough snow to ride, it has enough to slide. Suspect the deepest snow areas on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features. Even a small avalanche triggered could take you for a very bumpy ride. We'll start providing regular forecasts when there is enough snow to get around on.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road is a snowpacked and icy surface. AWD and good tires required.
Grooming: The Geyser Pass Road above the winter trailhead is officially closed to wheeled vehicles and grooming has commenced.
Weather and Snow
General Conditions
Happy winter solstice! The mountains picked up a trace of snow on Wednesday night. Settled snow depth in Gold Basin is 19". There's just over a foot of snow at the Geyser Pass winter trailhead. Season snowfall total is 34". There is not enough snow for skiing and riding, but some folks have been venturing off trail with caution to check on conditions. On Wednesday I took a stroll around Tele Gold and Lone Pine to check on conditions, you can read my report here. We are still on track for a storm on Saturday into Sunday. While it's not going to be a blockbuster, we will receive measurable precipitation this weekend. Keep it tuned here for the latest updates as we get closer to the weekend. Grooming has commenced on the Geyser Pass Road and for now, nordic skiing is the best game in town.
Other observations are starting to come in. See the most recent observations here.
This photo was taken on 12/20 and shows the very thin coverage on the solar aspects in Gold Basin.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
No recent avalanches have been reported.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Several inches of pre-existing snow has turned to weak, sugary facets at the base of the snowpack on northerly aspects. Time will tell how big of a problem this becomes, but we'll be keeping an eye on it. For now, it's only a concern in upper elevation, northerly facing terrain where winds have drifted slabs over top. Most of the areas where you would encounter a problem are difficult to access because of the low coverage, but if you find yourself in the upper elevations, remember that if it has enough snow to ride, it has enough snow to slide. Suspect the deepest snow areas on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features. Even a small avalanche triggered could take you for a very bumpy ride.
I found a very weak, shallow snow pack at the base of Lone Pine on Wednesday. With any additional loading from wind or storm snow, I will have concern for both the basal facets, and the layer of buried near surface facets in the mid to upper pack.
Additional Information
It’s never too early to start thinking about avalanches. Here are a few things to consider doing:
1-Sign up for an avalanche class.
2-Take a free online avalanche course the UAC built for Know Before You Go or other courses listed on the KBYG website (Develop skills -> Online Learning).
3-Get your avalanche rescue gear ready for winter. Put fresh batteries in your transceiver and update the firmware. Inspect your shovel and probe. Get your airbag backpack ready by possibly doing a test deployment and updating the firmware if it is an electric version.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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